Big Digital Energy

0:00 Da-da-da-da-da-da-da-t The, um, hey boys, how are y'all? Doing great. Two in a row for Kirk, that's good. Yeah, good to see you Chuck. Very, very cool to see. Oh, I was like, you know,

0:15 we were sitting there trying to do we're on a show and it's like, well, what can we talk about? And then it's like, oh my God, what could we not talk about? I mean, we could probably do a

0:23 12-hour BDE today. Let's jump in, man. A lot of news. Yeah. A lot of stuff going on, but you want to kick it off, Mark? Our old friend, hello, hello, darkness.

0:37 Wow. Nice pun, did you work on that? Have you hired riders? Top, top of my head, no. Oh, well, Grock 3, Grock 3 is - There you go, genius. Pretty good rider.

0:51 So, we got an announcement and I think the best place to look at the numbers in particular is the OPEC. press release announcing that it will start its planned restoration of the 22 million barrels

1:08 a day of cuts come April 1st. And if you look at between May and April, it's about 132

1:11 or 135,

1:15 000

1:19 barrels a day. If you go and tabulate or tally up the eight countries in OPEC, that are participating in this decision, and the bulk of which, not surprisingly, comes from Saudi and of that 132

1:33 or 135, 000 barrels a day, 55, 000 of it is Saudi. I've quite frankly been pleasantly surprised that we're not at least yet hurtling toward a five-handle, and I just looked a few minutes ago,

1:53 the XOP has actually, which is the

1:57 EP ETF has actually turned green for the day.

2:00 And so I think this all be curious to hear your perspectives and take, but I think this all can be traced directly back to Trump's direct intervention. Remember the first call he made upon

2:17 inauguration was to MBS. And

2:22 so I think we're seeing, along with a lot of other things related to campaign promises, et cetera But I do think that this is

2:33 from a timing standpoint, not coincidental at all. You know, I spoke at NAIP a couple of weeks ago, two or three weeks ago. And they were asking what are oil and gas prices gonna do and drill

2:47 baby drill and all that. And look at the end of the day, we've known Trump long enough and well enough to know he wants lower oil prices. been his mantra the whole time, inflation's driven by

3:03 energy costs. And he was gonna get it, whether it was brow beating the US. oil producers to drill more somehow, or he did something for Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC don't know what it was,

3:20 but to get them to release more oil. So this is just kind of our life And lock your hedges in place and be ready for lower oil. I think the goal for the industry is you do have a pro

3:42 build or infrastructure type president in place. So can we trade it for something easier permitting on pipelines, easier regulations on building refineries. All this kind of stuff we want to we

3:59 want to do, we need to get our trade, 'cause there's just no two ways about it. With Trump as president, you're gonna have lower oil prices. I mean, it'll be interesting to see what happens with

4:09 the potential sanctions on Iran. You know that traditionally, the UAE and Iraq usually overproduce, which, you know, I'm always curious about what goes on inside of OPEC and those little

4:25 discussions

4:28 But it'll be interesting to see sort of how this plays out. Yeah, you mentioned potential for sanctions. We've already seen a cancellation or a suspension revocation, whatever you wanna call it of

4:42 Chevron's operating license in Venezuela. There's been some a little less obvious shuttle diplomacy going on there. One of his special advisors, I can't remember which one actually met with Maduro

4:55 And so, Chevron. exports account for about a little more than 220, 000 barrels a day. And who knows with Iran, but I think MBS knows that this is a pretty strong possibility that we're going to

5:12 see both Venezuelan and Iranian barrels coming off the market. And OPEC has reiterated a fairly constructive outlook for demand in 2025. I mean, we had a world record, an all-time record in 2024,

5:28 and they see it going even higher globally. So when you start to look at the pace and timing of the restoration of the early phases of the restoration of these cuts, a few hundred thousand barrels a

5:41 day, I think the Saudis would certainly rather be producing 10 million barrels a day or more than that, the 9 million barrels a day at 70 to 75 dollar oil. They certainly don't want to do that at

5:52 50. And so I think part of this is, you know, anticipating some gaps to be filled that may not be as obvious in the front of the conversation right now, given everything else that's going on with

6:07 tariffs and Russia Ukraine. But I do think that that is part of it. And I had a conversation earlier this morning, my longtime sidekick and OPEC watcher Dave Purcell responded immediately. And

6:21 that's

6:23 where I think we think alike in terms of

6:27 what the Saudis who are clearly driving the bus and always have are potentially trying to balance here. I mean, I'm curious guys, if this was premature or of course it wasn't necessarily planned,

6:43 but what about Ukraine

6:46 today or last night drone striking on Russian oil refineries and gas transport facilities. So how is that going to play out? I know that those meetings happen probably simultaneously, but it's

6:59 interesting to see what actually it's gonna, what that impact we'll do on the market, if anything. There was a tweet, and I forgot who's sent it, but you know, that's the quid pro quo. You're

7:10 not gonna help us out. Great, you're gonna pay more for gasoline. We're gonna take out refineries. Now, I'm not sure taking out Russian refineries is gonna do that, but there is some thought of

7:24 that definitely being tied together. The one thought I kind of had with OPEC agreeing to

7:34 in effect increase production, is this OPEC saying US productions peaked and US productions declining? I mean, and that's the reason they're willing to lag into this, do they maybe even have a

7:51 steeper forecast for US. to climb and certainly what the market's thinking. I wonder what kind of insight OPEC may have there that we don't. Yeah, Eric Natal had a tweet yesterday. I don't think

8:02 he's maybe hasn't coined it officially, but he's kind of calling Twilight for you as shale, meaning Permian. And I went back and looked at the 914 data for December over, I think December's the

8:16 latest that we've got for December over November.

8:21 You can certainly see, even with the noise of the numbers, some slowing of the rate of change. And I do think there is part of that in the anticipation in that we can't, I would assume in the MBS

8:36 and Trump discussions and that

8:39 we've got to be very careful about upward spikes if all of a sudden the

8:45 US. shows significant signs of plateauing or decline in demand is riding higher globally.

8:56 as we all know, US. jail has been the swing player for a decade or more in terms of satisfying global demand growth.

9:06 But

9:08 the other side of this is when those barrels come back in the market, and ultimately if they all get restored, you no longer have 22 million barrels a day of spare capacity in a

9:22 fairly tumultuous world right now And

9:27 so we'll see. Watch inventories, as always.

9:31 We're about 90 million barrels below the 5-year average globally, I think is the number that I saw. So the other thing that happened today that kind of rolls into this is

9:43 Zelensky just sent out a tweet that's. or an X that's, I think, about as close as we're gonna get to the maya culpa.

9:54 kind of full apology that Trump may or may not be looking for, but basically said, regretted how it turned out. He wants peace immediately. Blah, blah, blah. Was this just a bump in the road?

10:11 Kind of the Oval Office press conference, and this is just art of the deal, part of the negotiation? Or where does all that stand in your mind? Your turn, Kurt. Mark? No, I'm curious. This is

10:25 good. You know where I'm gonna go, but I'm gonna, let's go to Mark. Yeah, look, I do think that there is more detail starting to come out. I don't know if it was in that same tweet. Kirk, you

10:38 mentioned in the drone and missile strikes, which I think is the Linsky address, kind of conjecturing how this,

10:48 the way I read it phased in ceasefire, could start which is a ceasefire in the air.

10:55 that may stop some of this. I do think that the immediate pause, not cancellation, the immediate pause of US weapons and financial aid as a little bit of a fire here. And I do think that

11:12 the economic framework provides the boots on the ground, security that we see in other places And, you know, let's not get ourselves, we can go off into the mining aspect, but I'm trying to get

11:28 my head around what Ukrainian ultimate reserves look like. You hear a lot about rare earths. I think it's more about things like graphite, nickel and lithium. If you just look at some kind of

11:42 quick queries in terms of how much Ukraine reserves potential is in those key areas, graphite being a significant one, because we know that the Chinese have a stranglehold on that. I also think in

11:53 going way off on a tangent that if we can get US. mining interests there developing those reserves, it takes some of the pressure off from an environmental standpoint of maybe exploiting some of

12:06 those same resources here in the US. So it preserves the NMB aspect of that. I don't know how the details of that work out and what's economically viable in terms of mining as far away as Ukraine

12:21 and then importing from that part of the world. But we do a tremendous amount across the Pacific from China on some of those key resources. Yeah, I'd be interested to see where the new Trump

12:35 administration is going to go on sort of on

12:38 domestic exploration production. Is it going to be fast-tracked or people are going to be paused? I'm curious to see that because clearly in Biden you're not going to do a whole lot.

12:52 Pitched some of those deals or looked at those deals, people are just not quick to move on anything. Ukraine though, I mean, God, it's a war zone and it doesn't look like Zelensky's wanting to

13:04 give up any time soon.

13:07 Man, it's risky. So I think you're seeing

13:12 other nations as well as companies making decisions outside of sort of those hot areas And I just saw Exxon just made an announcement by that they're gonna boost their gas production in Guyana. So

13:29 you're seeing more and more of this and be interesting to see sort of how other decisions are being made. And man, reminding me, I got in this sort of Twitter fight over the weekend with sort of

13:43 what happened in the Oval Office with Zelensky and I don't know why I got baited into it but I self-baited myself.

13:52 What's curious is, it's like, what

13:57 is the value of Ukraine? I mean, can they really screw up and slow down Russia's transport of energy into Europe? Maybe to some degree. The reserves are nothing to brag home about. I mean, what

14:11 is the big deal here? Ukraine's got very little to know value as a taxpayer. Why are we sending money there? Who cares? Now, as a humanitarian, I'm like, oh, those poor people. But as a

14:25 taxpayer, I'm not. I don't care. I do not care. And it's like, people like, you're a Russian bot. It's like, well, Russia, the whole economy of Russia is smaller than the economy of the

14:38 state of Texas. So, again, I do care because they have nukes, but Russia does have a lot of reserves. Russia is more interesting to me than anything else But Ukraine? What do they have? And why

14:52 are we spending all this time on it, except distraction? What's lost in all this? And I, you know, there are no, I don't think there are any singular answers to the question on what Russia's

15:05 initial provocation, at least in this round, it dates back more than a decade now and actually dates back all the way to the end of the Cold War and the unraveling of the Soviet Union. But if you

15:16 look at Crimea, for example, which they annexed and the only - I love that term annexed. Let's go annex Canada. We've managed to avoid that up in the woodlands, which has been - Yeah, I know.

15:31 To bring it home. But the, the - Without a shot fired, Mark. Crimea

15:40 hosts Sevastopol, which is the Russians only access to a warm water port

15:49 You know, we did say, James Baker said, back on February 9th, 1990 in meeting with Gorbachev that in the reunification of Germany, not one inch eastward. Well, since '99, starting with

16:04 Chetchia, formerly Czech Republic, formerly Czechoslovakia,

16:10 we've brought 16 countries into NATO. Some, like the Baltic States, share a border with Russia. And in fact, one of the most recent, not a Baltic state, Scandinavian state Finland, that

16:27 borders almost, it's over 1, 000 kilometers long. But if you look at a map, and you see the more southwestern bordering countries like Belarus and Georgia and Ukraine, it starts to make sense

16:42 where, you know, what if I lose my access to, you know, the overthrow in 2014 of the pro-Russian regime to the pro-European regime

16:55 was Putin concerned that they were going to invite, you know, NATO navies primarily the US into that region. And I don't think Putin is pure of not having nostalgic delusions of grandeur of the

17:13 Soviet and even before the Soviet Union the Russian Empire because he talks all the way back to what the 8th century about the historical importance of what's going on here. So I mean we were willing

17:27 to push the world to World War III because the Russians put a bomb in Cuba. I mean so that's always kind of, you know, I don't want to be pro. Putin in any way, shape or form. 'Cause look, I

17:44 think he's a bad guy and I think he's a KGB guy at his heart and always will be. But I mean, at some point, you do need to stop. I've played the game risk long enough that if you put enough little

17:59 pieces around somebody, they get pissed off, you know? No doubt, but here's my question and I understand why Biden didn't do it. But if you're the United States, one of the easiest low-hanging

18:14 fruits is to put as much LNG in the Europe from the United States as possible. Like, that's how you crush Russia, is take over the deals. Why didn't we do that? Let's do it. And I know our

18:28 friends, Toby Rice and those guys are like, Amen, but what the hell, man? I mean, if you really wanna hurt somebody and you really wanna do some damage, like take the trade away. And we have

18:41 the capability, shit, man. I mean, how did we win the Cold War? We bankrupted the Soviet Union. It wasn't because we had, you know - That's true. Four or five times more nuclear Armageddon

18:53 capacity than they did. It was purely economic, and Reagan knew that. And so, one of the things - Look, if we should - I mean, yeah, go ahead, sorry, Mark So, I've been curious about what

19:10 Palmer Lucky is doing with Andrew Ola Kirk. I'm sure you know who Palmer is. He basically was the inventor of Oculus and was sold to Facebook in 2014, and then he got politically sideways with

19:24 Facebook. And this, he's always been weapons interested, even all the way back to China. He used to build these - Basically, weapons and electric shock gloves and

19:37 things like that, if you want a good -

19:40 kind of rambling meander about his history, go listen to the recent podcast that he did with Sean Ryan, the Sean Ryan Show. And one, but one of the things that he talked about was, and he's been

19:54 repeating it lately, is if you look at, I guess, most recent kind of war game simulation, which I think we can all read as a, as a hot war with China, on things like long range anti-ship

20:09 missiles, the US stockpile would last barely a week if that.

20:17 And so if you go down the list of some of the key arms and weapons that we're sending out to fight what some believe is a proxy war, what does that mean for our own,

20:30 the security of our inventory of weapons? And this is one of the things that Andrew is focused on. They're doing some really cool stuff. They basically took over the IVAS agreement that Microsoft

20:42 had signed with the US government to develop this, it's a22 billion project developed this kind of omnipotent helmet that is very sophisticated, very AI oriented. You can read up on that, but what

21:01 are we doing in terms of our own ability to maintain that inventory of ammunition and weapons and the manufacturing capability in the US around that stuff is not something that can replenish a

21:14 stockpile within a few days or weeks. This is one of the - I mean, that's good subterfuge for the grip. What do you think the multiple of

21:25 Chinese shipbuilding capacity is relative to the US? Oh yeah, I heard he was talking, Palmer was talking about this, it's like 50 times ours

21:35 150 times. Even worse. And here's a few things. I'm glad you mentioned this, because every time we mention Ukraine, we need to simultaneously say something about Taiwan. And so you mentioned the

21:49 fear of China big time. Now, the other side of China is the fact that they've peaked on

21:57 human, like, you know, their birth rates have just fallen off the roof 'cause the one child left behind, blah, blah, blah, like they're in their decline from a species. They can't get enough

22:10 people born fast enough. So I see from a Chinese perspective, they

22:20 have to do number like shipbuilding. They have to keep the manufacturing high, build as quickly. They need Taiwan strategically. I mean, they need TSMC in every one of those chip manufacturers

22:33 over there.

22:36 I think that's the bigger conversation from our perspective. And why, and I think your point about Ukraine is we're using all of our resources for a proxy war. Well, one way to get rid of the

22:49 grift and not keep the American people mad at you is say, well, we've got to rebuild our stockpile. We're screwed. I mean, why are we working for some of these defense manufacturers? Now, what

23:02 a grift out of us Yeah, you know,

23:06 at the end of the day, boy, if I'm a chip manufacturer in Taiwan, I'm building my factory in the United States as quick as I can, tariffs are otherwise.

23:18 Just, I find it hard to see a world where China doesn't make a move on Taiwan. And I just, I don't know that the world's gonna have the stomach to actually

23:33 push World War three just to protect Taiwan. I mean. Well, I think that was the whole, I think that's where we were headed until Trump got elected. Yeah, well, I mean, I can kind of feel the,

23:48 you can just feel the attrition in terms of defending Ukraine. I mean, I think we've gone from, you know, Ukraine had 70 and 80 approval early days and now it's at kind of 30 or 35

24:08 in terms of people thinking we should be spending more money on it. So I think, I think public sentiment when it comes to Taiwan is gonna be a big important element there. And I just don't know how

24:23 much it's gonna be rallied to do that. Actually, it feels like in the immediate future this Venezuelan situation is something we ought to be paying a lot more attention to resolving. Why is that

24:37 hard? I read something where there was a Venezuelan warship that came into Guyana's territorial waters

24:47 We think about who's operating there You know, how would we feel if the Russians started and they probably probably already do but you know, we we start seeing a big Russian military build up either

25:01 in terms of weaponry or Boots on the ground in Venezuela

25:08 It's somewhat akin to your your reference to long-dated history in the Cuban Missile Crisis

25:16 So and that's obviously much closer to home and we don't have as big of an ocean

25:24 And I you know, I don't know what the containment Capacity or capability is around that but it it just seems like the of rhetorical and headline and political distraction around what's going on in

25:40 Ukraine right now is diluting the sharpness of our focus elsewhere that we've got some issues on the shorter term and intermediate term horizon, not the least of which is China and Taiwan. That

25:54 being said, you don't feel like there's going to be the Russian

25:60 response if we go take out Venezuelan warships. I would hope that we can dispatch a Venezuelan pretty easily because I mean obviously with Exxon and Hess and everybody else or Chevron with assets

26:18 there, that's going to be defended by the US military forces there But I think you're right. I mean they definitely sent their warship by for a reason. I mean, Trinidad and Tobago are currently

26:33 seeking an extension for US. license to develop a gas field with Shell. I mean, that's another interesting hot spot that we probably don't spend enough time talking about. What's happening over

26:48 there? Where's the Northeast of the United States gonna get their LNG for if Trinidad's not providing it to him? Yeah, 'cause it can't come

27:00 from like the freakin' closest spot in the world, Marcellus. I mean, why not? That's impossible. Can't build a pipeline, don't have

27:11 a Jones Act, compliant LNG tanker in the fleet, so we can't

27:15 even ship 'em Texas gas. Can you executive order that bullshit or no, is that? There was talk in the first Trump administration about exempting energy from the Jones Act There's probably some war,

27:29 the thing powers-type

27:32 commander-in-chief.

27:35 do to do it. And I mean, I don't have any idea why the Jones Act should exist. I mean, it's just, it's a relic of days gone by. It's not effective. I mean, we have, I think we've built one

27:49 Jones compliant ship in the last five years, something like that. And, you know, I mean, we don't even have military plans right now for the US. military to take over the civilian US. fleet. I

28:07 mean, they don't even plan for it today. So, I mean, that was at least the basis for part of the reason for the Jones Act. So, I'm having got, Colleen Grubov from the Heritage Foundation on

28:21 Chuck Job. We're going to record Thursday morning because he just wrote a piece talking about how much energy costs are in Hawaii. in Alaska and Puerto Rico, because they're not able to access much

28:36 closer US. domestic energy.

28:41 So. Tariffs are happening. I wanna hear all about tariffs and what you guys think's going on. Man, I don't have a clue on the tariff front. I mean, I'm generally a free trader. I generally

28:52 think that tariff wars are bad. I'm generally kind of a Ferris Bueller with, you know, a

29:01 smooth holly and that was a bad mistake. Now, that being said, when I said all this stuff during the first Trump administration, I was wrong. It turned out China would lower their prices 10 to

29:15 offset the 10 tariffs. And we just didn't see much in the way of inflation. But I can't believe we're not ultimately going to see more in the way of inflation. going forward with all the tariffs

29:31 and

29:33 we just lived through a pandemic where I couldn't get toilet paper so I do think we need to build domestic industry so I've come somewhat off my free trade soapbox and I'm willing to accept a little

29:42 bit of protectionism if we build an industry here but got it it feels like that should be a scalpel and not a big sledgehammer I mean I'm a public school educated I didn't go to a fancy rice but my

29:42 conservative professors talked about free trade

29:56 I'm a free trader but

30:09 the reality is is Trump's playing 40 chess I'm just kidding I hate that

30:17 but but here's the reality when I was working for Michael Dell back in the old days there was one thing I learned about our relationship in China. China have these rules that were unfair. Basically,

30:32 we want you to come to China, you can make a lot of money here. However, we're not gonna let you take the cash out of the country. So you have to spend it here. And so it kind of had this false

30:45 like, well, we're making money, but we're not being able to export that money

30:52 That's this whole thing with these tariffs. The tariffs are, you guys are playing unfair, so go fuck yourself, we're playing unfair. And while everyone's that what's, no oh, about crying

31:07 gonna happen? It's all short-term. 'Cause what that does is when you hit a bully in the face, he backs down. That's all this is. It's not, this is not anti-free trade This is, there are some

31:20 actors that are not playing fair. Go fuck yourself. We're gonna go, we're gonna play your game. So there's nothing wrong with that. In fact, not playing that way, you're a total pussy, and

31:32 you're acting like a pussy. So be man up, let's say we're the biggest, most powerful country in the world. And if you wanna play with us, you're gonna play our rules, not the other way around.

31:46 And I think that's what is so frightening about all these people on the fictitious world of Twitter is they're lost They don't understand long-term economic policy that's gonna benefit the United

31:59 States and they're crying about it. I'm like, fuck those guys. The reality is we're being treated unfairly, so we're just gonna write the ship and then we'll see what happens. But if people don't

32:10 write the ship like Canada, hey, Canada, what are you

32:14 gonna do? It's gonna crush you. It's not gonna hurt us. And the one other thing I'll add in there, 'cause I think you're right I mean, if these are tactics to an end game. I'm all for it. The

32:27 other thing too is the thing critics always miss is behaviors dynamic. If you put a tariff in place, you go figure out a way around the tariff so that it's cheaper. And maybe that's, you know,

32:40 we're gonna build a factory down in South Texas or we're gonna do this or that. So just because the supply chain exists as

32:50 it exists today, and a tariff gets popped on it, doesn't mean it's not gonna change for tomorrow, so. I mean, yeah, my response when I saw the whole Zelensky JD Vance Trump debacle in the White

33:04 House, you read all these people that are embarrassed about how our government, our president treated them. I'm thinking, man, these people have never raised money before. Because when you go

33:16 into someone that has money, like me going to Chuck and then I started to fight with Chuck, who could fund my future, I probably wouldn't do that. I'd probably show up in Chuck's Hummer wearing

33:30 whatever he was gonna wear and saying, Yes, sir, can I have another? But so every investor I fundraise for saw me in a suit and tie. Absolutely. As much as I love my hoodies. Yeah, as much as

33:45 I love my hoodies. Of the scene fromStep Brothers when they go into their first interview together inTuxedos. Yeah, exactly. So good We're asking the questions, not you. Yes, that's exactly

33:59 right. And the other thing I'll say too is everybody that I raise money from got a high-end written thank you note from me for taking the time to

34:10 meet with me, yeah. So on primarily tariffs, but I think DRW did a good job today. I've been enjoying his higher frequency of output that he's a lost dude. his hot take of the day out today. I

34:27 don't remember the title. It's a great, great read and really zooms out and says, okay, what is this all about? Starting with tariffs, but also immigration and deportation. And the things that

34:44 we are, or that Trump is prioritizing here and what he's promised to deliver. I think the biggest one, it all comes down to this, is cost of capital and ultimately lower interest rates and a reset

34:60 and asset pricing and

35:03 what it goes so far is to be okay with risking a recession. Because you cut the size of government, you cut government spending, you slashed budgets. What's the biggest line item next to defense?

35:15 Well, it's actually bigger now, is the service on the debt. over a trillion dollars. We spend what 900 billion

35:26 in defense. And so we're gonna get that cooling off, if not contraction, that then is going to ultimately, not without some pain because of what we went through in the midst of COVID. And all the

35:40 fuel we threw on the inflation fire and all the other ancillary effects that came out of that But that's where DRW argues, this is pointed, all of this together. 'Cause there are two big things to

35:56 that point. I haven't read DRW's thing yet,

35:59 but what is it? I think 10 trillion, we've got a refinance in the next, what, seven months, something like that. So every basis point is really valuable 'cause we're gonna have to refinance all

36:16 that debt. It's coming due. And number two, the other thing, when you look at Trump's, somebody made this tweet, so I'm stealing this thought, but when you look at Trump's base, generally

36:29 speaking, it's asset-like people. It's workers, it's

36:35 people that don't really own lots of stocks. And so if he can make housing prices cheaper, so that they can buy their first house, make rents cheaper, et cetera, that's a win. And if that means

36:50 a recession and that means rich folks that own a bunch of stocks and bonds taken on the chin, it probably doesn't hurt him politically as much as historically as the president might be hurt by

37:03 falling stock prices. It's the cliched Main Street versus Wall Street, but that's exactly right. I mean, that demographic as the core of the base and the electorate is. I think worth

37:20 acknowledging at least, and I think

37:24 DRWSP brings it all together in a fairly short essay on

37:29 what the whole of government or whole of policy approach here is and the elements that we've been talking about, everything from immigration to tariffs to

37:41 stopping our

37:44 blank check approach to defunding things that, you know, we don't think has an acute national security or America-first interest. So let's do this as kind of

37:57 our exit question. What do you

38:03 think he says tonight, not

38:07 the State of the Union, but the State of the Union's speech, I think they call it a joint session of Congress because he's only been president

38:16 What do you think he says tonight? And ultimately, where do you think these things shake out? I'll even go first. I think

38:29 ultimately where this shakes out is, we wind up signing the minerals deal with Zelensky. We wind up getting Putin's Zelensky to the table and ultimately within three months, we're signing We're

38:45 signing a peace deal there. Nobody's gonna be happy, but at the end of the day, I think that gets done. I do think Congress passes a clean resolution, taking the debt ceiling up above 40 trillion.

39:01 And then I do think he's gonna ultimately get his one big, beautiful bill through. And then when we look at, tariffs and that sort of stuff. I'm hoping

39:22 Kurt's right that at the end of the day almost said Kurt Cobain. I'm hoping that that Kurt's right that it's just tactics and ultimately the world settles down. Well, I mean, what does the

39:37 president do? He has three powers, economic policy that drives the next two. So economic policy, domestic policy, and foreign policy. I think this is, he's going to talk about getting our house

39:51 in order. Economic policy is the most important. I mean, not because we're finance people because it pays for everything. So shut down the border. That was probably more as much as foreign policy

40:07 as anything else. But let's secure the United state so we have the healthiest economy so he's trying to attract You know, these Taiwanese chip makers, he's trying to get people to invest the United

40:20 States, including the5 million per price tag golden ticket. I think he's doing things that are very brilliant and the price of being an American citizen is huge. So I think he's trying to get at

40:32 his economic house in order, which includes the tariffs, which will completely restate the game. Domestic policy, which is, I think he's trying to cut everything So doge is, let's just cut

40:45 everything that doesn't matter because government's fat and every time the government spends money, it doesn't help the GDP because it's fictitious. I mean, and then third, foreign policy, I

40:60 think he's, I really like his foreign policy honestly. I think it's like, we don't need to be involved in the world except where it really matters strategically and let's spend as little as

41:09 possible doing it. There's nothing wrong with that.

41:14 Chuck, I'm sort of in line with you. I hope he says those things and we'll see. I think he's gonna start off and spend a disproportionate amount of time on issues that really have both an emotional

41:29 component, but things that he can back up with points on the scoreboard today in point two, like the

41:39 dramatic reduction in encounters at the southern border, the interdictions on the drug side. And I think the

41:53 other thing that is probably going to get more attention than kind of a results, more politics than results in delivery on promises is what has happened with,

42:08 and along with the immigration issue, going to have as guests the family of Lake and Riley and the, I believe the mother of Jocelyn and Gary and spend a lot of time talking on that. And the other

42:23 issue that I think he's going to be able to at least try to score some points against the Democrats is what has happened with fairness in women's sports and the whole competition

42:43 of trans women participating in women's sports. Because that was a pretty, that was a pretty party line vote. They couldn't get to the 60 needed, 60 majority in the Senate to pass it, but not a

42:56 single Democrat, Senator voted in favor of it. So I think he's going to spend a lot of time That is an 8020 issue, and politically, you've got the majority of congressional Democrats standing up.

43:13 in opposition to something that has a lot of, I think, electoral and citizen

43:21 support like an 8020 issue. And so I think he'll spend some time there. Where I don't think he's going to spend time is, hey, egg prices haven't come down yet. Maybe he'll say something about,

43:34 you know, I've taken a few bucks out of crude oil here. And the tariffs are working with respect to our, at least our headline objective, which was to stop the flow of fentanyl. He'll probably

43:44 talk about, you know,

43:46 we got Mexico immediately to go against this longstanding, unwritten policy. We're not sending, we're not sending our, you know, cartel prisoners over without, you know, some kind of promise of,

44:01 of not imposing the death penalty, which I heard is also on the table. So I think it's going to be mainly, mainly immigration related and the fact that. He's got I think he's already got some

44:15 movement out of Zelensky coming back his way. Oh, and how much How much he can point to already which I think the total on the on the doge scoreboard is over a hundred billion dollars in savings

44:28 After 45. Let's let's let's do this. Let's all go pop our popcorn Check it out tonight and if if we're all totally wrong and other stuff happens I'm free all week we can record three or four more

44:43 times might be fun to do it again tomorrow

44:48 Good to see you guys. Good to see you Good to see you. Good to see you.