Big Digital Energy

0:00 Hey, digital wildcatters. Welcome to another edition of BDE. You like the backdrop, Mark? I love it. Yeah, I was in a panic week. Where's Kaleid? Where does it say Kaleid?

0:14 Yeah, we need the Kaleid stamped across it. But now I was in a panic because, you know, we moved to the new offices. I'm like, where's my big Chuck Yates needs a job banner? But it is

0:25 supposedly folded away in a corner and Jacob needs to set me up a remote podcasting studio. Yeah, well, after we broke the seal on the new studio last time,

0:40 back to remote, we had Kirk on the hook for up until the last minute, but business intervened, and so. Good luck on your negotiations, Kirk. Good luck on your negotiations, Kirk All right, so

0:53 what's going on?

0:57 What's going on? The girlfriend claims she wants to retire one day to Spain or Portugal, and

1:07 don't tell me why that might not be a good idea. I have someone in my family whose spouse is Portuguese, and there have been trips and contemplations of maybe part retirement in Portugal. I think

1:28 we got a good glimpse of reality with respect to the state of the grid, and so on Monday around noon or thereabouts, Spain time, there was a

1:44 series of upsets on the Spanish grid that ultimately led to a complete blackout that cascaded and caused the same in Portugal, some impact in France, I don't recall all the specific outages relative

2:04 to the peripheral metric. Yeah, there's limited interconnect, but in general, the

2:13 European grid is highly interconnected, unlike here in the US, which we've spent quite a bit of time talking about. And one of the first things I did was, Hey, I got to reread shorting the grid

2:29 by Meredith Angwin,

2:31 because there are a lot of, and I know colon hates acronyms, but there are a lot of key acronyms being thrown around in the discussion. And that book is an outstanding

2:44 layperson translation or non electrical engineer translation of, you know, some of the dynamics that are at play. And the somewhat ironic thing is that this. event occurred

3:00 the week after Spain had touted the fact that 100 of his generation, I forget over what time period, whether it was a day or the week, 100 of his generation supply was from renewables. And at the

3:14 time of the blackout, you had, I think, 5 of thermal in

3:20 the form of a combined cycle spinning at that time. And further, there was an event related to renewables that I've seen that apparently there was like a huge or a massive 20 gigawatt solar dump on

3:37 the system. And so what happens, and it can be caused by various factors, and this is kind of amateur electrical engineer. A power line guy is something called induced atmospheric vibration. So

3:53 the high voltage lines run or the whole system runs in a fairly tight band around a 50 Hertz frequency. And that band of tolerance is literally from 49 and a half Hertz to 50 and a half Hertz. In

4:07 the old days, grid resilience and stability was really a function of what's called inertia or the constant of inertia, which is provided by mostly thermal some hydropower into a lesser extent

4:23 nuclear, which has got just a slower response time because of steam turbines or slower than combustion turbines. But basically, a response time measured in milliseconds when there starts to be

4:37 disturbances or deviations from frequency, the natural inertia or the embedded inertia of the spinning machinery online can respond quickly and dampen or modulate that And

4:52 there's a lot of different threads being investigated as the cause, what caused the

5:03 IVA,

5:06 or excuse me, the IAV, the induced atmospheric vibration to then really signal that the spinning machinery that was online, it accelerates in response and then there are safeguards that caused that

5:18 generation to trip offline. And then it cascades and you ultimately get in an interconnected situation that stability cascade and essentially black out the entire grid. Yeah, you know, Campbell

5:31 Faulkner, who's always my go-to power guy, I've had him on Chuck job a couple of times. I mean, he said this 'cause, you know, we almost, with winter storm Yuri, we almost brought down the

5:44 grid, Urcott in Texas and he came on, walked us through it and he basically said, look, politics here in any way, shape, or form. I'm not being anti-renewable. It's just at the end of the day

6:00 when you don't have spending equipment.

6:04 It changes the nature of the electricity and it's simply physics. It will potentially bring down the grid at some point, you know? And I think this just goes to the point of, you know, this is

6:19 really hard to do what we're trying to do. It's not as simple as if we just got rid of big bad oil and we use solar and wind, everything would be hunky dory, peachy keen. This is just really hard

6:32 to do. A lot of physics, a lot of money, and we just need to have intellectual discussion, honest discussion about, you know, what trade-offs are truly worth it. Yeah, and you know, the

6:49 substitute for Rotating equipment inertia, the embedded inertia, the natural inertia is, in the sense of renewables, is that they are replacing, or the rotating equipment inertia is in place by

7:05 inverters, or large-scale battery storage, that can respond quickly, discharge quickly and respond quickly to keep that vibration for a more succinct term, getting worse so it goes out of

7:24 the band, which then triggers the safeguards that shut down the generation to protect the equipment, protect the grid.

7:32 This IV can be caused by electromagnetic wave propagation, wind turbulence, all of these things, on these 400 KW lines that traverse over long distances, that traverse over long distances.

7:49 They're exposed to a lot of things that potentially can cause that. But my read of the situation was, the weather was pretty mild. There doesn't seem to have been a wind event. And you did have a

8:05 pretty big slug of renewables as part of the Gen Stack at that time. And the fact that this happened in late April and Spain is pretty eyebrow raising. But to

8:22 your point, the politicization of all of this, when these events happen, whether it's Yuri or this, or Meredith Anglin talks about a cold snap in Vermont in New England where she lives back in

8:36 2018, the real issue was the fact that there's such limited gas pipeline capacity and supply, there's a very, to be redundant, a very finite amount. And when you get into a cold situation, a

8:55 dangerously cold situation, guess what has priority on natural gas? It's your gas for - In your grandma. Your gas for grandma's - You have to keep your grandma's mother warm. Yeah. And so,

9:06 fortunately, at that time, and most people weren't aware, at least in the region, you had dual fuel

9:16 thermal facilities that had oil storage, and in one case, that storage got down to one day of coverage. Unfortunately, the weather broke and got warmer, but that really had nothing to do with

9:31 renewables. It had to do with

9:36 the lack of kind of synchronous, build out of the grid, and the more balanced

9:44 distribution of generation And there's a lot of other things, and I'm not qualified to. to comment on those things, certainly from a technical point, standpoint, but, you know, ERCOT is the

9:56 same, is in the same situation

10:01 with respect to the massive amount of wind and solar build out that we've had over the last 10, 15 years.

10:10 Battery storage is catching up. I looked at ERCOT yesterday, and I think the last time I looked, we were over 9 gigawatts of energy storage, and we're now 11, at least in

10:23 nameplate. And so are we getting what essentially constitutes

10:31 the factor of the technology that needs to mimic rotating equipment and inertia? Are we getting that caught up with the proportions of generation that don't inherently have inertia to make sure that

10:48 we have a stable grid. So. It's a hugely complex issue. And I think events like this certainly

10:58 jolt, the policy makers and politicians into at least talking about it. But again, there's still two very polarized sides of this debate and discussion going on. There were, I think, some

11:15 deflections into, hey, we're gonna investigate this to see if it was a cyber attack, et cetera. So it is the problem solved, I think far from it. Yeah, Neil Dykman came on Chuck Job. I'm gonna

11:32 say six months ago, which probably means it's longer than that, just. But Neil said, he wasn't saying this is what's gonna happen, but he did say what could happen. And he literally said, if we

11:47 wanted to, we could rebuild our grid. Today, 100 solar

11:53 and that battery storage was there and economic enough to complement solar and replace

12:08 it all. And I don't know enough about it. I let him say his piece and I tried to punch holes in his argument where I could, but I'm not enough of an expert to do it. But anyway, so I tried to

12:22 punch holes in Neil's story, but I can't really just 'cause I don't know enough. But you know, at the end of the day, can we have a thoughtful, honest discussion and just spend the dollars once

12:40 as opposed to patch working, doing this, fighting amongst each other and the like. So it'll be interesting to see what

12:51 comes out of Spain when they do their debriefs. The lurching kind of incremental approach to all this over the last couple of decades has been very capital inefficient, which has a direct impact on

13:06 ratepayers, which you can see reflected in most kind of electricity price trends over the long term. And so in the regulated areas, the more generation you put into it, like every other asset,

13:23 you've got a high value asset, they're guaranteed a rate of return on it. And guess what? If the ratepayer base doesn't increase proportionally, then you've got higher per ratepayer charges to

13:37 cover that, the value of that asset and the guaranteed rate of return on top of that. And again, it's a lot more complicated between those that opted out of kind of the RTO ISO. um, development,

13:52 or the deregulation back in 25 years ago versus the, the areas that, and I'm currently in one, I just learned, uh, that is, uh, not in an RTO, which is Arizona. I believe, um, I need to do

14:08 some more research along those lines, but

14:13 you know, to your point, we need, we need this, we, we seem to have sped past this critical, this critical aspect or feature of the grid that, you know, essentially has a safe minimum standard

14:29 of inertia. Now they're, they're going to be weather related and other extreme events that, that no systems, you wouldn't want to spend the money to put a system in that's, you know, got a

14:40 hundred percent reliability that's, that's not feasible and that's

14:45 horrendously costly. But at any rate, I just, uh,

14:52 So I thought quickly back to Yuri and

14:55 other events

14:58 in our recent discussions about the grid when this happened on Monday. So real quick, while we're in Europe, well, I guess technically England's not in Europe, they Brexit did, but we'll go to

15:13 the island Tony Blair came out last night and actually said, Hey, we need to really rethink this net zero thing. It doesn't look like, potentially, it should be our end goal in these timeframes.

15:33 I don't have his exact quote, but he cast a shadow, and what the British girlfriend told me was, Say what

15:44 you want about Tony Blair. Tony Blair is probably the best politician. in England in terms of having a read on the people and getting out in front of stuff. And so, you know, his, they're having

16:02 local elections, I believe today,

16:07 on the island. And so, Tony Blair coming out the night before, saying that may actually disrupt kind of the narrative coming out of England in terms of we got to be 100 net zero, we're not going

16:23 to drill for fossil fuels anymore, et cetera. 'Cause ultimately, the people are starting to revolt in terms of higher prices, reliability, et cetera. Yeah, and I'm more acute. And I think,

16:41 contemporaneous example, kind of move West to Canada with what happened with the election on Monday with Carney. winning. When a short while ago, I think

16:57 many wouldn't have placed a bet in that direction, but again, we talked about really the the nationalistic and national security response that really drove that outcome, which I think we predicted

17:11 along with others not taking any major credit for that prediction. But I think what you're going to see using Canada as as an analogous situation in the UK and change the sentiment, even though we

17:25 have, you know, a globalist, WEF, G fans, investment banker at the now at the top of the Canadian government,

17:36 the this was also predicted by others, but you're seeing, you're seeing, for example, Daniel Smith, who's the premier of Alberta, stand up and say, look, we're not going to continue to

17:57 have the Canadian Constitution ignored, we are done with confiscatory things like equalization and a host of other more politically charged issues, which I think is going to give cover for

18:08 the new Canadian leadership to start to quietly or maybe more softly undo some of the things that have been obstructing things like infrastructure permitting. We've talked about this before. Help me,

18:25 help, help me here real quick 'cause I was, I was talking to Laura this morning and

18:33 either one of our listeners shoot me a text about it or Mark cleared up for me. How again did Trump change the dynamic in this election? I mean, I don't think either side. was sitting there saying,

18:51 yes, we want to be the 51st state. So I don't understand how just outside Trump derangement syndrome, this even mattered. I mean, how was one side able to tag, I guess, the liberal party, how

19:09 were they able to tag the conservatives with Trump? Well, I think it's just fundamental, at least optics or perception of policy alignment, deregulation,

19:22 permitting infrastructure, you know, anti-climate type of broad strokes. And so, you know, the people that are a lot more insightful about the whims of Canadian politics would suggest that, you

19:42 know, Trump, Trump was such,

19:47 you know, it was kind of shocking all. Uh, and maybe that has mostly, mostly to do with the tariffs, um, to a lesser extent on border security. And so he is such kind of anti to the liberal

19:60 Canadian platform. It's easy to pen all of that on, can't even pronounce peer poor there. The conservative, uh, riot candidate who not only lost, um, that election also lost his seat in

20:16 parliament, which, which is just absurd after I saw him eating that apple six months ago, being interviewed, I really thought that's your next superstar. That is your next global leader. Um,

20:32 and just would love to get maybe that, maybe there's a Canadian political expert of some sort. I'll reach out to, uh, to the, to the networking Canada because I'd love to just hear dissection of

20:48 all this, because this is the craziest fall I think I've seen, you know? I think the thing I read about this turnabout is that, um, and apparently I saw it somewhere just this morning, um,

21:06 Carney has already reached out with the, um,

21:12 with the prospects of making a, making a trade deal. He already reached out to Trump. Trump was congratulatory. And, you know, I think they realize with what Alberta and Saskatchewan have been

21:28 doing for a while and the premieres of those provinces in the West, um, we should, we should have a real Canadian on to talk about this. But, you know, I do think that Stacey, Rory, somebody,

21:40 come on. I do think that the

21:46 liberals, can shift pretty markedly from, you know,

21:55 policy of kind of policies of obstructive regulation, nothing gets built, nothing gets done, you know, our national security is threatened by things like tariffs. And we've got to get moving on

22:09 national security first or everything else goes by the wayside. And there's a pretty malleable media that, you know, we'll inevitably see some protests on some of these things. If the liberals say,

22:21 well, we're we're going to streamline permitting, we're going to get moving on infrastructure, national security is a priority over climate. The media is not going to cover it. Right.

22:33 It's just, it's just such, it's almost a cartoonish contrast with the profile that everybody talks about that Carney is. He's a WEF guy. He's a globalist. He was one of the architects of the

22:49 global financial alliance for net zero and on and on and on. And this is a really kind of subtle and clever way of the populace more getting their way after years of pushback and you know all the

23:09 things we read and saw back during during covid particularly with things like the trucker strike etc. And I don't understand I don't understand the first thing about equalist but equalization

23:19 payments but I do know that there's a lot of western provincial payments to the central provinces because of just the inherent natural resource wealth and advantages that they have. We'll be gracious

23:33 to to Carney and claim this is Nixon going to China that only a liberal kid could provide that. Yeah, exactly. All right, I'm not a crook.

23:48 All right. Let's jump back to Europe. Sounds like the flood of mineral deals in Ukraine will be the next thing. We'll see a

23:59 lot of business plans on, get a lot of cold calls about, see tweets about, yeah, I classed at that. And, you know, okay, so we have at least in principle an agreement on essentially a 5050

24:15 revenue sharing for what I call resource development reconstruction. I haven't looked at the details of it, but

24:25 I think what's starting to come clear as people focus on this a little bit more is that you've got

24:33 this misguided notion and Javier Bloss has been pretty good about repeatedly pointing this out that this is not about rarers. Ukraine is not a kind of a dominant player in rarers. mining and

24:48 processing. This is about things that are more fundamental or more traditional like graphite and titanium and more of a new generation lithium and let's not kid ourselves it's about it's about a lung

25:02 gas

25:04 and I think there is some motive here that as we saw with what I call drill by drill baby drill by OPEC proxy the notion that we have influence and control over you know pretty significant well in gas

25:22 resources and what that can can do to the global supply supply demand balance is just another is just another play here my my take on it is realities and implementations a long way away because the

25:36 Russians Sergei Lavrov who has been very pointed and explicit recently saying luck, the terms of the terms of of Russia have essentially gone up and they've expanded. We want all the territory. We

25:54 want an explicit no NATO guarantee. And then I don't understand the details around this either, but there was something in the language around

26:07 maybe backing off by the NATO countries that immediately border Russia So there's a long way to go to get to this.

26:20 I think what was in the honeymoon days of the first few days of the administration, there's a long way to go. And my question is, if we get to some kind of fragile agreement or treaty or ceasefire,

26:36 how long is it before US companies are going to want to put capital and humans on the ground in Ukraine? I wouldn't be rushing there. No pun intended. Russian too. I thought that was pretty good.

26:51 RUSHI and G. Yeah, it was very good.

26:55 There we go. I saw Lady and I wish I could remember her name. She was a Russian expert. She was on Fox News, I believe sometime this weekend. And she had an interesting point on all this. She

27:07 said, look, a decade ago Putin began, in effect, building his economy so that sanctions wouldn't hurt him. You know, he, he sanctioned, proved his economy. He went to a wartime economy. He's

27:26 got way more in the way of bombs and missiles and anything we have. And she said, we just need to understand, we literally have no leverage in this situation. I mean, we can put all the sanctions

27:43 we want on Putin. It's not going to matter to him. He's got more bombs so we can throw stuff at him. Doesn't matter. He's got, you know, 10 times the drones we do. And he'll just keep, he'll

27:55 just keep firing away. And so Putin really does hold a lot more cards here than we realize. And so, I mean, I guess we're kind of seeing that play out in terms of the terms keep going up every day

28:13 The one thing

28:18 I will say is, and I kind of hate to do this because I've become more an isolationist in my old age, but I ultimately think the world's a better place when we're involved somehow. And so I think us

28:33 ultimately walking away from this, I know we've threatened it. I

28:39 think would have ultimately been a bad thing. I actually like seeing the mineral deal get done, even if it's not really a thing, it's more symbolic in nature. I mean, you'll definitely have, I

28:54 mean, you know, you had idiots that went to Oklahoma to settle it when they opened up settlements there back in the 1800s. And, you know, you had people go out and drill wildcat wells and West

29:09 Texas and stuff happen So somebody's going to go over to

29:16 Ukraine and start digging up something. Now, will those be the people we'll defend? Maybe not, but at the end of the day, I do think we have to remain involved here. Yeah, and this is more of a,

29:31 you know, a political observation, and we talked about it last time, which is the strategic objectives are sound, whether it's relating to.

29:45 increasing the security around critical industries by bringing production and manufacturing back to the US. or in the case of Russia Ukraine, I think the art of the deal of the negotiating strategy

30:03 puts some kind of indirect pressure back on Putin to whether it's not exactly kind of NATO membership. We're moving ahead with the strategy of increasing our economic presence, which is a deterrent,

30:23 hopefully. But the tactics are such that the electorate looks around and certainly the media looks around and says, Well, nothing's gotten done. It's been a week. You've had a week to actually

30:34 get something done. Just like promises of, We're getting this thing in 24 hours in the first 100 days. the trade deals need to start coming fast and furious. And here we are, what,

30:48 20, 29 days past April 2nd, which is liberation day,

30:54 when all the chaos broke loose. And because of the short cycle of important American elections, in terms of policymaking, namely Congress, which is every two years,

31:10 there's a lot, there's a lot of, well, you didn't get that done type of rebuttal to the debate. And so if we keep lurching back and forth between

31:24 effective control of meaningful pieces of the government, then, you know,

31:32 it's hard to, it's hard to continue to turn the ship Yeah.

31:38 And I'll say those to your point.

31:42 to move it into politics,

31:47 I do think, you know, if ultimately, but you've got basically till the end of the year, I think, if you're Trump, and if you're

31:59 able to get a piece I and, don't done bill, you beautiful big your, Ukraine in done still

32:07 know, I'm certain

32:18 in that that gets he If. permanent cuts tax the make they'll but, Medicare cut gonna not they're, Security Social cut gonna not they're done and you see any sort of bounce back in the economy,

32:25 which I think you will, I mean, I think we, economic growth has halted just 'cause of the uncertainty You

32:35 see all these announcements of the various people building factories here now and all.

32:43 you potentially could have a red wave conversely. If you don't get those things done, then you could have a blue wave. And I think I don't think there's going to be a tweener. I don't think you're

32:58 going to wind up with the Republicans pick up two seats or the Democrats pick up four seats. I think you're talking plus 30 either direction on this. And so, you know,

33:13 I mean, and where's that coming from? I think it's coming from Trump's ego. I think he thinks he knows what he's doing these days now that he's kind of served for, call it, five years and has his

33:26 team in place

33:29 And plus, you know,

33:33 he's not going to run again. I know he trolls the Democrats with Trump 2028,

33:39 but he's not going to run again and he knows it. We need to take the volatility out of our

33:45 political outcomes, I guess, is a way to think about it because these

33:52 big strategic shifts and pivots that I think are fundamentally needed in the right direction

33:59 don't operate on six monthly cycles. And we are six months away, which is either a long time in terms of collective memory

34:10 or a very short amount of time in terms of getting things done that you can point to that will ensure success in the midterms coming up here in November. Although, I do think this that ultimately,

34:25 ultimately the electorate's probably more forward looking than we give them credit for.

34:33 If you go from one to three,

34:37 you're feeling better and looking like. you're gonna go to six or seven, then if you're at seven and you go down to six. Right. So I

34:49 do think momentum matters in politics. Real quick, let's hit a carbon capture.

34:56 Yeah, this became somewhat personally topical on another front, but I thought it was interesting in looking at the CCUS, which is, you know, the adopted

35:13 path of choice for certainly Exxon and others who are responsive to

35:21 and somewhat participating in IRA-based incentives. And just had a conversation this week about, okay, well, the CCUS credit or the 45Q credit

35:40 a pretty significant feature of the IRA and this article that we've linked really talks about what I call the headwinds for CCUS and

35:53 predicting the risk or predicting the possibility of that being part of what gets cut in Doge and maybe roll back of some of the provisions of the IRA is a pretty big deal right it's you're looking at

36:16 for geologic storage geologic formation storage you're looking at tax credits on the

36:21 order of the base credit is17 a ton and if you have something like a wage and a apprenticeship criteria criterion met that increases to85 a ton I don't know exactly what that means but I think of the

36:40 small CCUS projects, I know that those revenues are being generated on something that approaches or is more than80 a ton. So if that's make or break, you know, what's and these things in large

36:56 scale, particularly in Exxon's case, we're talking about tens if not approaching100 billion of ultimate investment, right? And so if you pull, if you do a rug pull here with 45 queue credits,

37:09 because, you know, it's cost reduction as part of a Doge initiative, then

37:19 I know you can't ensure against this unprecedented risk. But how do you think about that as a CCUS developer? Plus, there are other things going on. I think there's, and CCUS injection wells are

37:35 class EPA six permits, and there's, you can go look at. what's required in your permit application. But there's like a,

37:46 I wanna say 160 permit application backlog at the EPA. I think they've approved like six to eight of them. And the predicted timeline to approval is three to six years based upon the pace. And

38:01 states like Texas and Mississippi where there are

38:06 significant activities going on around CCS, Exxon with the Denbury stuff in Mississippi and then all the Gulf Coast stuff. In Texas,

38:18 those states are trying to get primacy whereby they have at least as stringent standards as the EPA but they can get to the permitting review and approval process much faster if they are the primary

38:35 authority.

38:38 Colin and I were downtown selling AI software, and we had a break and we just popped into the office of one of our favorite people on the planet. Don't know if I can say his or her name.

38:54 So I'll tell you what they said, but I'll keep the name to myself. We were all sitting there going direct air capture is just the stupidest thing on the planet. It's never gonna make any sense And

39:08 this person actually pushed back and said, you know what, the desire of big tech Microsoft Google to hit their net zero targets is real and they're willing to pay for that. And maybe it may be an

39:28 effect. It's the advertising marketing budget. They want to say we truly are net zero and all and this person was. do not sleep on the voluntary market for this to actually happen. And so this

39:47 person should know. And so anyway, it was interesting to hear. That's a great observation. And I

39:55 do think that there are, I do think there's going to be a voluntary market, but developers of CCUS projects, let's say they're

40:07 paired with an off-grid, gas-fired generation serving a data center.

40:14 Well, if that feature is available, CCUS feature is available, that will, the risk will be mitigated ultimately in a more attractive or premium price power. If the 45Q credits go away, it's kind

40:32 of what's the

40:35 price? What's the indifference price? in terms of the power to cover all these nice to have features. I'm not required to do this, but it has kind of good will value to me as a Silicon Valley

40:50 player and data center developer. Right, so I think we'll find more indirect market solutions because we're not talking about, particularly in the case of direct air capture, we're not talking

41:06 about trivial amounts of capital to get scale facilities built.

41:12 And nobody knows that better than Oxy. Exactly. All right. And by the way, I mean, back to, you know, we're not, we're trying not to politicize new renewables, it's the same on an even more

41:32 basic level I'm all for Pollution Mitigation.

41:38 And I, you know, I think the Noxinsox rules have got a lot of noble objectives behind them, but we just, we just make things so horrendously costly in terms of getting through the permitting and

41:54 approval process. So if you had some longer term horizon of clarity, then, then those investments are worth making. And if people see value as you pointed out or is the person you met with pointed

42:06 out, they're going to continue to pay for that value, whatever it is, and CCUS is no different. I always find it very ironic that people that are telling us that Trump's tariffs are leading to

42:19 uncertainty, therefore, stifling economic development never seemed to turn the light on permitting and the regulatory environment as causing uncertainty and disrupting economic development

42:36 Cool?

42:38 Hey everybody, thanks for watching today. If you liked it, please share it with a friend, subscribe, leave us comments. Remember, my ego is very fragile.

42:50 All right, Mark, we'll see you next week. All right, brother.