Big Digital Energy

0:00 Hey, digital wildcatters. Welcome back to BDE. Mark, where the hell have you been? Hold up your run of show that you printed out in your giant print. We're so glad that after last week's episode,

0:10 aren't we glad to have Mark back run of show, different topics, linking to articles. This is going to be so much better.

0:21 Where were you? I was in North Carolina. Nice. For two weeks. That's awesome Did everything from visit the NASCAR museum to catch a couple of AAA games with the Charlotte Knights. Oh, very cool.

0:37 My son was out there doing some training for a couple of weeks. So it's good. Good to get out of the heat. Oh, that's awesome. Caught.

0:46 Was it Debbie? Debbie's remnants or the tropical pressure came through there. Like the second or third day we were there So a little wind and rain will welcome back. We're glad to have you back. I

1:01 think the fan base was calling for you to come back. So anytime we don't treat you well, just sit out a week.

1:09 I'll be out next week. We'll be back. So, Audrey Stevens passed away. Endeavor, there had definitely been kind of rumors of him being sick and thus leading to the sell to Diamondback. But anyway

1:27 Yeah, some great content out by you next week, the video with Brian Schifield. Yeah, that was cool. I gotta give Brian props 'cause Brian literally was crying last Friday. I mean, that was his

1:39 mentor and I told Brian, I said, look, just take out your iPhone and

1:47 record 'cause even if you don't show anybody that in 20 years, you're gonna wanna remember what you were feeling and the stories and to it me sent he.

1:59 And it actually did not take much in the way it convinced. I'm like, you need to share this with the industry. And he goes, well, how are we gonna edit it? And all this, I said, nothing.

2:06 We're just, let's just put it out there. 'Cause I kind of like BDE, kind of like BDE. But no, the stories were great. And I, I wound up getting a lot of messages from people telling stories. I

2:19 have one guy, Autry was part of a breakfast club that met every Wednesday And they wanted some younger members. So my friend had just started an oil and gas company, a young guy, got invited to

2:31 the breakfast. And before Autry got there, he was like, well, we'll just, you need some acreage. We'll see if Autry's got some non-core assets he'll sell you. So anyway, Autry shows up. My

2:44 friend gets introduced to Autry. And the guy goes, you can't eat non-core assets. You'd sell me and Autry goes, I don't sell shit

2:55 I never actually met him. We would occasionally on a investor bus tour would arrange to see private companies. And it never intersected in a couple of three meetings that we had over the course of

3:10 time of a few years. He was either working away behind closed doors or wasn't available. So I regret not ever meeting Autry, but just. I didn't know him well, but the last time I talked to him

3:27 was probably about 12 or 13 years ago. And he sat next to me on a Southwest flight and he was in a middle seat. You know, it was Houston to Midland or Midland to Houston or something. 'Cause he

3:40 still flew Southwest. Yeah, and very much similar to that, George Mitchell used to fly Southwest. We had a, when I started covering Mitchell, it was shortly before. the Devon acquisition, they

3:55 had a

3:57 gathering with the railroad commission up at their Bridgeport Gas Facility. And one of my associates was flying up, I'd flown up the night before Fort Worth. And one of my associates was flying up

4:10 same day, and he looks across the aisle on Southwest and he's seated right across from George Mitchell. Yeah. So, you know, just to know they're the great stalwarts of the industry with lots of

4:23 color and character and and legendary aspects is gone, which. Well, and to some degree, we need to give Autry props for being ahead of his time when it came to media. Because remember the

4:38 Roughneck show? Sure. Yeah. I was an avid watcher. True TVs, high black gold, black gold in the, in the, I guess the footage competitions between the big dog rigs. Exactly, and Optry funded

4:53 that out of his pocket. It was great. For a while. I loved watching that. I've watched it

4:59 when it came out, however long. I think that was like, what, 2009, something like that, 10, somewhere around there. Don't remember. I think it ran four years. Forgot that Matthew

5:11 McConaughey's brother was in it. Sure, yeah. What's his name? It was, he had a funny nickname like - Rooster? Bunker, rooster, that's what it was Rooster McConaughey, so, you know, rest in

5:23 peace, Autry, I definitely know you will be missed, so. So, what's next? I don't know, I don't even wanna talk about this one, but I'll let you

5:34 kick it off. New York Climate Change, super fun. Yeah. And you're fucking kidding me. Well, we've seen it in Vermont, which actually was passed into law, or enacted on July 1st, essentially a

5:48 model of charging. pro-rata based on historical emissions, various oil and gas companies, for funding reclamation or restoration of things supposedly damaged by climate change in the state. I'm

6:06 not sure how you

6:09 draw those borders and count the molecules in the state versus outside of the state, but New York in a bill sponsored by assembly people from not surprisingly Manhattan and the Bronx, Bronx proposed

6:23 the same thing for the state of New York, which is effectively expected to be funded, or demanded to be funded over 25 years to the tune of3 billion a year, your obligation, whether you're Aramco

6:41 or Exxon, will be based on their model or calculated emissions total. And so I think I read, Aramco would be the biggest pair of that3 billion a year at over640 million. Good luck collecting.

7:00 PIMEX is also part of the offenders who would be obligated to pay in this fund. PIMEX doesn't really have a lot of extra money to be putting into New York. Climate changed super funds, but it

7:17 covers the spectrum and is

7:21 certainly not surprisingly focused on the oil and gas industry.

7:27 I just hate we're targeting the oil and gas companies, making them out to be the villains. How about Amazon? They're vans running everywhere. What about the New York taxi cab system? They were

7:41 running off. How about you that gets two or three deliveries a day when you could get one. Yeah. No, no, exactly. It's, it's. It's the consumers of the product that technically polluted. And

7:53 I'm not trying to say that to be a home or for the oil and gas business, but this whole notion of evil oil and gas does this and consumers didn't vote with their wallets to do it. I mean, you mean,

8:07 right. The Federal Superfund Act and that whole model is based on, some of these just awfully contaminated sites that took place over decades. That violated existing laws at the time. Right, and

8:26 these are targeting the natural emissions off of legally consumable and sellable commodity products, namely oil and gas in these states. So it's a bit of an after-the-fact based upon - And the

8:43 Constitution says - Supported damage you say everything in the, in the, objectives for the funding to do things like build seawalls for coastal protection, marsh reclamation and restoration and

8:60 things is seemingly a bit far removed for funding overhauls of heating and air conditioning systems and school buildings to more efficient solutions.

9:13 But my point about the federal superfund model is that as far as I can recall, it was largely based upon actual damages that you could directly correlate with practices that were outside of some of

9:32 the regulations and the laws and they're observable in that they're, you know, contaminated rivers and soil, et cetera. So a lot of these sites needed to be cleaned up and they needed to be

9:44 cleaned up, but they're pretty, pretty aggressive way Yeah, and they were - they were - violating laws at the time that were in place that were dumping into rivers without permits, that type of

9:53 thing. You know, I looked it up just to me, I was a political science major, but I just want to make sure I got it. Alright, Article 1, Section 9, Clause 3 prohibits the federal government and

10:06 states from passing laws that are exposed, facto, in nature. And so, I mean, they've operated within the law. Emissions have been contemplated by federal regulations imposed on the car companies,

10:23 permits, etc. So, this is kind of chicken shit. Well, and as we said, when we talked about the Vermont proposal, which is now enacted into law, that this was going to be

10:38 the start of a bit of the domino effect of this type of aggressive adverse legislation that targets a specific category of energy producers who are providing the energy of life today. And

11:01 if we think about the business decision as to whether or not I continue to operate in a state that is now imposing that type of penalty, I've got free will to not operate in that state. Or

11:17 reduce operations to the extent that, you know, maybe you just leave all together. Yeah, and I would think even despite being the economic powerhouse that New York City is, et cetera, I think

11:33 that's a state potentially if I'm Saudi or AMCO, if I'm pay max, if I'm Exxon, maybe I could do without. Right. You know, it's not like it's Texas. You know, it's not like I got a million

11:46 barrels a day of production out there. Well, this is consistent with what we've seen. We know Marcellus extends into New York State, but you can't pressure stimulate it well in New York State. So

11:58 therefore, you're stopped at the border, so to speak, and New York State loses in the form of jobs and

12:09 tax and royalty benefits from having producers Yeah, and again, the thing I hate about it is, it takes away from the honest, thoughtful discussion that we should have. We're just gonna go after

12:24 big, bad oil and gas companies. We're gonna raise prices to the consumer. Every time energy prices go up, people die. I mean, I hate to be that blonde about it, but it's true, and it's

12:40 just the chicken shit way about going about it instead of sitting down with the users, the consumers of oil and gas and all right guys we need to do this for the environment we're going to put this

12:54 burden on you in terms of more price, less product etc. It's this demonization of big bad oil and gas companies and then they're going to turn around and bash the oil and gas companies for charging

13:08 too much for price gouging and it's just at two to four cents a gallon retail margin. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So good luck, New York.

13:20 I am almost there. I would never. I'm still not there. I won't do it, but it would be great if we just shut down all the petroleum-based products one day. Now, I know that would cause mayhem,

13:33 which would be really bad and we're not those kind of people, but it'd be nice just to say, Hey guys, okay, you can do without us if you want You know, I'm sorry I'm being better.

13:45 Yeah, I think that kind of shock treatment would be politically untenable. Yeah, bad stuff would happen, which we don't want bad things happening. Are we talking politics again? That's why we

13:59 produce energy to make life better for folks. But anyway, I'll get off my soapbox. So should we go to the next state owned or the next governmental entity? Yeah, I found it amusing that the UK is

14:19 now proposing a partnership, a government, a state owned entity to accelerate or motivate more investment in offshore wind. And they've created something called Great British Energy which will work

14:36 with the Royal Crown Estate, which owns most of the rights to, I think, a 12-mile offshore. um,

14:47 potential leasehold. And the plan is to invest

14:56 up to order magnitude 60 billion sterling over the next five years, which will somehow catalyze private investment to participate and generating leasehold and development plans for 20 to 30 gig of

15:14 offshore wind, which will theoretically power up to 20 million homes. And so you've had a private sector that has ebbed and flowed to say the least based upon market conditions and offshore wind in

15:31 particular and among other things some of the higher profile hiccups that we've run into like an end tuck it. We've seen major offshore wind products. when projects canceled here in the US, namely

15:47 off the northeast coast, because PUCs have gotten a little bit queasy about ultimately heaping those costs of what's been impacted by inflation and construction costs and delivering these projects

16:04 and what it means for their ratepayers. They've kind of reached that point of tolerance, if you will, to go ahead with some of these offshore wind projects. And I just, you know, I find it once

16:16 again that the government is going to do these big capital projects with a lot of headwinds in the market, suggesting that that capital is not going to generate an appropriate risk, adjust a return

16:33 that somehow that I called it, I think in our text among this when I sent this around last week, Bit of a force march. And so the birds ultimately on the consumers and the taxpayers and what kind

16:48 of magically happens because the government is now involved to change the

16:57 kind of economic framework of offshore wind. We start to see some deflation and materials and other costs come in to get these projects more competitive, but somehow all of a sudden you put together

17:10 a state-owned entity that's going to magically make things. And it's all on the promise of ultimately lower cost. Look, we're

17:19 we've been at the mercy of dictators because we import so much fossil fuel.

17:28 Russia was highlighted in the in the rationale by Keir Starmer. You know, we we're at the whim of these authoritarian dictators and the price shocks that relate to that. The only thing, 'cause

17:41 when you sent that article around, I had the same exact reaction, if no one wants to invest right now, what is getting the government involved, make it any better. I guess if you wanted to be

17:56 somewhat deferential to their efforts, you might look to something like university lands. I mean, the University of Texas and AM own all of this acreage, and they put together university lands

18:13 that has oil and gas professionals there. They lease out the minerals to oil and gas companies. And to their credit have been pretty entrepreneurial and doing that, they're a bit of a pain in the

18:24 ass to deal with. But for the most part, they do facilitate stuff. So I might be willing to ask some questions of if these guys are gonna come in and standardize leases, Maybe push back on

18:39 parliament. We need some rules here, here and here to make this happen. Okay, maybe it could be a constructive force.

18:50 But at the end of the day, I mean, my sense is, it's just gonna be more government and more politics. And the fact that they're claiming that they can replace Russian natural gas with

19:04 interruptable power, I think, leads me to believe where I'm right to be cynical. How many best in class models from a market standpoint stayed on to energy companies, are there? Yeah, exactly.

19:21 So it's just a, you know,

19:26 it's a bit of a forcing of an issue that is largely dictated by the market the market. in what we've seen in other places as it relates to offshore wind and the public equities that are in this

19:42 business have suffered. They're more than their fair share of pain, but it's really the market reality. And now the new UK government steps in and says, we're going to do this, we're going to

19:55 catalyze this and surely motivate a lot of private investment And you still have companies, I forget the name of the company, there's a UK offshore oil and gas producer who's threatening to move out

20:10 of the

20:13 UK into friendlier regimes defined as places like Norway. I mean, when you look at, because of the the immense tax burden to British producers, you look at their part of the North Sea and

20:27 production's been declining. You look at other folks, Norway, for instance, have actually seen growth. in their production is in North Sea. I mean, didn't we talk about BP paying upwards of

20:42 like 75 tax rate on their North Sea income a couple of years ago when we were doing BDE?

20:50 I think that's something, it was something like that. It's us collide. There we go, we go ask collide. We should have asked collide before we came

20:59 in. BP out of the North Sea or something accounted for what 10 of their net income and 40 of their tax bill or something ridiculous like that. I'll go ahead and make a prediction so we can look at

21:10 this collide a few years. Great press release, nothing will happen. I think part of the motivation politically is there's been a lot of consternation in Europe and UK in particular that the US

21:26 administration moved very quickly on something called the Inflation Reduction Act, which is

21:33 incentivizing renewables investments in a lot of ways is part of the package that's that's in the the IRA that we've we've talked about and What we're seeing is and I think John Earl we didn't I

21:46 didn't grab that tweet John Arnold put A tweet out over the weekend he was talking about two years end of the IRA or I guess almost three years and now which sub sectors of Energy and renewable energy

22:04 or material I outperforming as expected and materially underperforming. I thought that was an interesting breakout and Offshore wind was in certainly in the lower category just based on the anecdotes

22:16 that we've talked about it's it's not surprising

22:20 Yeah, I mean it was a call on low interest rights to some degrees So

22:26 Speaking of more politics as we lead into another discussion about there's some event going on Chicago this week

22:35 Another John Arnold tweet was in relation to the Grain Belt Express transmission line, which is an 800-mile proposed transmission line, the projects sponsored by Invenorgy out of

22:52 Chicago. And the route is designed to run from Kansas through Missouri, across Illinois and terminates at, I think, the Indiana border. And there's a lot of wind generation in Kansas. And so the

23:09 delivery of renewable power across, I think, there are three independent system operator territories, Southern Power Pool,

23:22 mid-continent. And then I think the terminus is at the western border of PJM, the state regulator. And this has to do with the Illinois section of the line. across three states, the Illinois

23:36 section of the line, the Illinois regulators approved it, but the state appeals court overturned that or rejected the approval or canceled the approval on appeal. And I thought John brought up a

23:52 really interesting point as to how this all works. And he basically said in summarizing as a chicken and the egg problem, one of the reasons that the

24:05 state court rendered its decision to reject or undo the state regulators permitting of the Illinois section of the line was they didn't have any financing. They didn't have any customers and a few

24:20 other things. Well, as John pointed out, that's not how project financing works. And so permits in hand, you go with clarity that you've got the project approval. to complete the project over

24:36 this service area in this transmission right of way. But it just, you know, it's just one of the

24:48 kind of endless dimensions of what we've seen in the

24:57 inertia that's, that's, that besets not only stuff federally, but also at the state level, when you don't have regional cooperation among, in this case, three states, one state can kill a

25:12 project, which is what it's effectively done, but it also goes completely counter to what the end game is to motivate getting renewable power that's generated in Kansas to population centers like

25:28 Illinois then transition out of other forms of generation. And so did you read Doomburg's piece on this? Yeah, and I thought it's interesting because Manchin, I think they called it Swan Song,

25:45 you know, that Manchin's put forth a permitting bill. And I am not, I mean, I'm a libertarian, I am not a big fan of the federal government and all, but these big projects that go across states,

26:01 even I can get my head around, this is interstate commerce and the feds have the right under the constitution to regulate that. We gotta have some rules in place so you can get these projects

26:15 permitted, do your work to protect the environment, but then it's gotta shut down just the numerous lawsuits and the various actors to your point that can come in and gum this stuff up. A sweeping

26:29 energy permitting reform act, which is what it's called, is only 75 pages long. which has got to be at least a contemporary Washington record for that spectrum or that breadth of regulation or

26:44 legislation. And, you know, I read the same Swansong piece and that perhaps sparked a little more focus on the EPRA.

26:55 And unfortunately, Swansong really describes what's ahead of us in the next few months is that you're losing one of your most thoughtful voices in Congress on. Ted, dare I say, only. Yeah, and

27:11 Joe Manchin, who reclassified as an independent some time ago.

27:18 And if you look at the one-page summary, which the thing that's compelling is that it forces timeline. It forces, in my mind, there's two things. It forces timelines or statute of limitations in

27:30 one case you have 150. day statute of limitation on actions, on whatever action is from data of the final agency action, the agency has jurisdiction. 150 days is not a lot of time as we think

27:51 about, you know, post environmental studies. 150 days is a pretty short period of time. And it works across the board for all energy projects, not just renewables, not just oil and gas. And so

28:06 there was a lot of compromise in this. The other, you know, the other thing that I picked up on and skimming the bill was the federal government got to conduct at least one federal lease auction

28:20 for not only oil and gas, but

28:24 mainly wind a lease sale every year and the way things are going now, we're not going to have a lease sale for a handful of years. We're not gonna have a lease sale buy. Right, so, you know, the

28:41 development or the appraisal, exploration and appraisal, and then the development timeline, go and sequence after that, as we know. And if you take the

28:53 area of offshore development, particularly deep water, those are 10, 15 year projects. I was looking at, was it Cascido, which is

29:05 BP's high pressure, high temperature

29:10 project. Cascido was discovered in

29:15 2003, and I think it's online, or maybe 2006. I think first oil is probably 2029. So there's 23 years between discovery and commissioning. And we have just got to get that,

29:33 way compressed. And I still don't see how in today's age of technology, you can't in effect have a current dynamic environmental assessment done for the entire United States. You know, where,

29:49 okay, we're going to put a line through here. You're going to hit these three things. You can't do it. It seems to me that we should not be starting from scratch. And I've never done a big

30:00 environmental study for a government entity. So I don't know, but it just seems like that ought to happen. Yeah, you shouldn't take as long as you're not, as I understand the bill, you're not

30:15 taking away the rights of judicial redress. So to speak, but you are. This is in my mind, it's mainly between the regulatory agencies and the project

30:37 sponsors. And so forcing decisions, once whatever appropriate environmental assessment is achieved or satisfied, then you don't, these things don't sit just for infinite periods of time while

30:58 agencies can kind of slow play and drag their feet, we've seen that. And we've talked about things like the Amblor mining road in Alaska that, you know, that concession or that prospective project

31:14 has been on the boards for over 10 years. And you waited 10 years to all of a sudden, because part of that project crosses

31:23 federal lands, you had the interior department just say, we're gonna issue no action, which means a critical road between the mine and the Dalton highway couldn't be built.

31:34 as it crosses through a federal preserve area, forget what it's called. I want to get back to EPRA real quick. As it relates to LNG, I think one of the most important things is that

31:48 it requires LNG export petitioners. It requires those projects to be of those permits to be approved or denied by the agency,

32:01 mainly the Department of Energy, within 90 days. And that's a blink of an eye in the way Washington works. And if that 90-day period lapses, the permits are automatically approved. So,

32:22 naively, hope this ultimately gets some legs that came out of the Energy and National Natural Resources Committee on a 15-4 vote So, um, I think people will look at that somewhat cynically as a

32:37 bipartisan effort between Senator Manchin and Barasso. Well, Barasso is the ranking member of the committee. He's a Republican from Wyoming, I believe. You know, do the political polls look at

32:51 these as really more one side than the other,

32:57 meaning more right than left We'll see, you know, I wish Manchin wasn't retiring, 'cause I think he's been incredibly sober and

33:08 thoughtful on energy policy, and Congress needs mean I. it understands actually he, Well. leader, that's a,

33:14 I mean, that in my mind goes, it goes, you know, it's one thing to be a leader and to be thoughtful on it, just ultimately understanding it and being able to call things out, I think it's been

33:28 an important role And we talk about it all the time on here. This is really freaking important. We need to have a thoughtful discussion about it. Yeah, and I, you know, cynically, I think we're

33:38 going the other way because as we've talked about, this campaign has devolved into, I know you are, but what am I? Yeah. And is focusing on things that are not policy related, although we're now

33:51 starting to get a little bit of,

33:54 I don't know if it's clarity, but rhetoric about what we're gonna hear over the next four nights at the DNC in Chicago. Yeah, 'cause it's a, we'll just roll in to

34:06 DNC. I looked back at all the national elections. I think maybe we've touched on England, but didn't really talk about it. So at some point, we probably need to do a debrief on the Great Britain

34:20 elections, but you getting pressured home for that or is that? No, I don't wanna touch it. I won't go anywhere near it Maybe she can come in and do it. She can, you and. You and Laura can come

34:32 in and talk about the - Oh, we're in my Clemson shirt. There you go, perfect. But, no, this is interesting though. So we've all seen the video of

34:43 Kamala Harris 2019. I'm against fracking. We're gonna ban offshore drilling, right? Laying it out. Her campaign has come out and said, no, she will not seek a ban on fracking. She has not set

35:00 with an interview You're more than welcome to come on Chuck Yates needs a job or BDE. We'd love to talk energy policy with you. Our first question will be, what is fracking, by the way? Can you

35:11 explain that to us? But,

35:14 so her campaign has come out and said it, but we literally have no context of what caused her to change her mind 180 degrees, is that I've seen the economic benefit of lower, Natural gas, now that

35:30 I've been in a national position, I understand cheap energy is key to bringing manufacturing back. We've got nothing 'cause she refuses to sit and

35:36 chat with anyone and I

35:39 need to hear

35:44 that. Well, I mean, I don't know that I'm gonna believe that until I hear why the transformation is happening. She's likely not going to win Texas so it doesn't really matter there. But if you

35:54 think about Pennsylvania, it's probably, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency. Yeah, so

36:04 which way would that state, I guess outside of Philadelphia, Lean? You would think they'd be pro-fracky. Yeah, I would think so. So, you know, political expediency has a way of, and you know,

36:18 people can learn and change their positions for very, very justifiable reasons. I tend to think just given the whole Tenor and dynamic of this. election campaign and the rhetoric that's flying back

36:32 and forth and the focus on things that, you know, are just completely tangentially absurd.

36:39 When we have tremendous and tremendously challenging policy issues in front of us is, is pretty important. And, you know, hopefully it'll motivate some deeper discussion and the debates about the

36:54 more substantive aspects of things like energy policy. I don't know. I, I'm not terribly

37:02 hopeful about the notion of at least you've seen in the headlines of rent and price controls, you know, beyond energy. Yeah. Well, it's like, if somebody's for price controls on the grocery

37:15 business as a one and a half percent to maybe two percent net income margin, I can't believe that person is pro-fracking. But anyway, I just don't think that person exists.

37:31 I think Kroger reported net margins in the second quarter of some of the lowest they've seen in a number of years. There's not a lot more that the top line can come down that, you know, as, as a

37:46 friend of mine used to say, there's an oil field services business, he said, you know, when they weren't getting any,

37:53 any pricing power and prices were coming down, yet there was still a business to run. He said, I'm kind of getting tired of working for practice. Zero EBITDA margins don't keep the lights on for

38:06 very long. We will see the time-tested response by the producers of whatever it is, or the providers of whatever it is in terms of housing. We've got a plan to go out and build what 3 million homes,

38:26 if they're going to be price control and the economic model doesn't support an acceptable rate of return. How do those things get built other than with

38:39 higher taxation and no return on that investment? I mean, when you look at the chart of what has increased in cost over the last 25 or 30 years and it's things like education, health care, et

38:53 cetera, versus things that have decreased in cost of televisions, television, cars, et cetera, name what the government subsidizes and name what the government doesn't subsidize. Well, back to

39:07 my point, I guess you look at Great British Energy's concept as being a subsidy, which is what it's going to be and how to, we're in history, we've seen costs go down, once that model or that

39:23 theory has been implemented in practice, it's almost

39:28 Yeah, it just creates rationing and higher prices per unit. So we'll see. What are your predictions coming out of the convention? So I think it's going to be just an absolute love fest.

39:45 I think, you know, a lot of parallels as we've talked previously on BDE to 1968, disputed type - I think they have a hundred thousand protesters coming in Yeah, so they've got the protests coming

39:59 in. There will be a lockdown on any media of this. You will not see it except on Fox News. I think where you'll see the rioting and the fires on the outside. Other than that, it's going to be

40:15 sunshine and roses And, I mean, unless Donald Trump can score a hit at the debates. She's not going to answer a question. I mean, she's just not. I mean, it's been almost a month now where she

40:34 hasn't sat for an interview. She, I think she's taken a question or two outside on the tarmac. Haven't seen any press conferences. Haven't seen any press conferences, so. And that's the one

40:47 thing you can say about men, nobody rallies the troops like the Democrats. I mean, no one said a word about Joe Biden's mental failings. Nobody on the

40:59 Democratic side said that this is crazy. They had a Democratic primary, they rigged it. So RFK Jr. couldn't be in it. 14 million votes to Biden and just sweep that under the rug and they give it

41:12 to Harris. So I mean, you're not gonna hear a dissenting word in any of this. It's gonna be all sunshine and stuff. So we were talking about it before we started, kind of what's going on Good

41:25 thing.

41:28 a large number or proportion of the protests are going to be anti-Israel protesters. I just saw a tweet.

41:38 Secretary Blinken had just come out of, I think it was a three hour meeting with Netanyahu and there's

41:46 some agreement or approval of a bridge planned a ceasefire that is now, it's the balls now in Hamas's court to agree to that. And of course, crude immediately fell out of bed. It was slightly up

42:04 this morning and it's now down over two bucks to just under 7450.

42:12 So

42:14 whether that is part of the conversation this week and is there some political advantage to progress on this issue that a cruiser allows. I think this particular wing of the Democratic Party to

42:33 deflect some of the criticism of

42:37 being anti-Israel, you know, I saw some

42:42 commentary and rebuttal that, you know, that a big part of the reason that

42:50 Harris didn't choose Pennsylvania as Governor Shapiro was because he is Jewish and he refuted that pretty vehemently this morning in a piece that I saw. So the Middle East politics are going to be,

43:09 you know, Israeli-Palestinian politics are going to be front and center is this thing. If it does, get pushed and get some momentum, I think you're going to be an important part of the backstory

43:20 of this convention. Well, and I hope they're just going to take credit for it if there is progress. And I hope it's discussed as opposed to swept under the rug. You know, one last thing I'd wanna

43:32 say that we've, we talked about the parallels to the 1968 Democratic Convention, held in Chicago as well, all the rioting that happened there, paving the way for Richard Nixon. What came out of

43:45 it was the McGovern-Frazier Commission. And basically what that did is it put a bunch of rules in place that in effect said we, the Democratic Party, when nominating the president are gonna rely

43:57 more on the voters than party insiders. I mean, they still had delegates that were appointed by the party, et cetera. But it put definite favoritism towards the primaries. And go back and read

44:12 what all of the folks surrounding that convention were saying about democracy, all of the leaders at the time and compare it with today where. Harris hasn't received a single vote for President in

44:28 her life. Right, and she didn't, she dropped out pretty early. Yeah, before Iowa. The 2020. Yeah. Yeah. And timing is not a miracle incidence here. The house came out with, forget which

44:45 committee, of concluding the investigation into the Biden family and all the scandals around that related to China in Ukraine, et cetera, in the quote unquote influence peddling,

45:02 basically conclusions that there are a number of

45:07 impeachable offenses that have a trove of evidence that was generated during the investigation of that meeting the standard of high crimes and misdemeanors. I just think, you know, the diversion on

45:23 the Republican side It's not going to rise to, I don't think, articles of impeachment at this late stage. The diversion of looking back now, what you would hope is that this turns and looks really

45:43 at the current policy debate that we should be having. I don't think it will. I just think that tactic is personally, I think it's ill-advised at this stage It's really coincidentally released it

45:55 on the first day of the DNC,

46:01 and

46:03 it's just more of the same gotcha, I think, both sides are guilty of it. I just think, given what has happened in the recent weeks, relative to, I don't know which polls you believe, to a bit

46:17 of a surge with her candidacy, it's

46:22 just not a tactic that I think has proven. be all that successful. I'm sorry, advisable. So two great tweets. One, having to do with energy policy, given that Harris didn't have to go campaign

46:35 in Iowa for the caucuses there, maybe we can finally get rid of the ethanol subsidies. That's great. And then number two, to win the presidency, Trump has to shut up to lose the presidency.

46:48 Harris just has to open her mouth

46:53 All righty. Well, glad you were back. We're going to be back next Monday, but then we'll I'll be on the road again. Well, post Labor Day, we'll get back. We'll get the band all back together.

47:04 So yeah, I look forward to kind of the worst, worst Kirk game or worst Kirk Ben game. Yeah. He's, uh, he's been quite the mystery. So hopefully he has stories to tell. There he is. Everybody

47:17 appreciate you tuning in. If you liked it, please subscribe, share it with the friend leave comments. We try to answer them. and peace out.