Formula 1, IEA report, the Ugly Truth about EVs, Mexico elections | BDE 06.17.24

0:00 Dude, happy Margarita Monday, boys. Margarita. Was it Margarita Monday? It always is Margarita Monday in the summers. And Chuck is celebrating BDE

0:11 because he dyed his hair. And he's claiming - That's bullshit. This is pure stuff. He's claiming the sun did this naturally. That is very different. Is there a difference? It is a little darker.

0:16 Is there a difference between highlighting and dying? It looks pretty good. It looks too good for some range. I'm gonna go find a picture of me when I was a kid and I'll send it to Jacob to cut it

0:16 out. I was a toe head. Total toe head. Yeah, but you - I was too. I mean, well, you are kind of - Yeah, I'd say blonde. Yeah. You should blonde, it is.

0:41 Blonde, blonde, go. Dude, great BD. episode. Wait, look at that right there. Right there, right there. Are we gonna give

0:50 that? Toe head, I'll send that to Jacob. But - We have a special guest, one of the founders of BDE. on the show. Not you, Chuck Much to Vlad Shagram.

0:59 I know I'm here to provide a whole lot of useless commentary and great mustache work, dude. The mustache is really good on me. It's pretty awesome, man. It was a Kentucky player in the college

1:11 world series yesterday, along with his, he was wearing aviators while he's playing and he died as mustache Kentucky blue, which is strong. Very strong. I'll tell you a lot of expression going on

1:25 now, which is great When we ring the bell on the IPO on the Texas stock exchange for digital wildcatters, I'll go black and gold, whatever combination we want to talk about. I thought you were

1:37 going to get a face tattoo. I did. If we go public, I'll do that. But all right, Kirk, catch us up. We've missed the last two weeks. This is literally known as Kirk Corner Corner. Kirk Corner,

1:50 we need to know. I've been diving into Scorslaly and F1. Great US. Open. I mean, one of the greatest things about Father, happy Father's Day, by the way. Thank you. Thank you. Everybody out

2:00 there. So a lot of dads, Father's Day, everybody. Miss my dad, love the fathers out there. It's also the same weekend as the US. Open golf championship. And it was at Pinehurst number two,

2:15 which has some actually great history. What's great about it is Payne Stewart won his US. Open there in 1999, 25 years ago Unfortunately, he lost his life a few months later in that tragic

2:27 accident. Yeah, rest in peace. Pinehurst is owned by the Deadman family, which is a huge supporter of SMU. My wife went to SMU and actually was sorority sisters with one of the Deadmans. And

2:40 Bryson DeChambeau won this year, and he's another SMU alum. So it was a incredible SMU Go ponies. Pony up. General Ben, I think it's General Ben, by the way, general band. Great victory for

2:53 Bryson. And he's one of the live guys, right? And he's a live guy. So this is a little controversial, yeah? So the kind of aftermath, the dust up that's been going on from the media side,

3:04 Brando Chamblee. A long worn, and I hate to say it, but yeah, he is. Yeah. So maybe give a little color on what that's all about. Give it to us. He's been very vocal and very critical of live

3:18 and the Saudi affiliation related to all the things that we've heard in the past several years in the media, not the least of which was the murder of Khashoggi. Yeah, this is actually an energy

3:35 story in many ways because the Saudis have been trying to really tell a new narrative about the future of the kingdom. They've been investing into sports like golf and Formula One, which we'll talk

3:48 about. They're building a new city near Riyadh that's really interesting and a new airline. And they're selling 1 of a Ramco stock to do this, to pay because they're having - In addition to what

3:60 they've already done? That's right. They're selling another funding round. But what's interesting is the golf channel has decided to just go all in against Liv. And they're using Brandl Shambly as

4:13 sort of the lightning rod to say that the Saudis are just evil. It's interesting. It's real interesting. So he's been painting everyone that went to Liv as people that are supporting murder and all

4:24 these things that are just, it's just crazy what you're hearing. What happened with the merger? They were supposed to merge and then it's been very, very quiet. So nothing's happened, but last

4:36 Friday, a week,

4:38 no, a week from last Friday, the Liv and PGA tour, Greg Norman from Liv and the PGA tour representatives met in New York on Friday to discuss about this framework agreement Some of the notes coming

4:52 out of that is that. It doesn't look like there's gonna be anything anytime soon. There might be stuff around the shoulder seasons, but it's a very tough one because the PGA Tour is answering now

5:04 to these new private equity funds and they are also asking the players to sort of represent the tour. So I don't know what's gonna happen. But what's interesting is Bryson has been, he is the

5:19 biggest star in golf right now He's a, he went to YouTube and he has the biggest followers. He's a cool cat. He's fun, he's quirky, he's weird, but he's so good with the fans. What's his

5:32 nickname? I'm just Bryson DeChambeau. I think it'd be under scorching. His nickname is The Scientist. Oh, his nickname, I thought you said his handle, sorry. But DeChambeau spent a lot of time

5:44 after the win with fans signing autographs. There's a great video of him hitting out of the bunker.

5:51 one of the NBC guys hitting out the monster, Johnson Wagner. I watched that last night and I found that fascinating. And Bryson gave him the trophy. I mean, Bryson's been great with the audience.

6:03 And so you're seeing people reverse. He actually at the PGA Championship, when she came in second, this is the controversy. Rory, who kind of shit the bad at the end. 10-year dress bill. And he

6:17 missed some putts The last putty you missed, I'm like, is a hard putt. It was short, but it was a hard putt. But after Bryson wins, he immediately, Rory immediately leaves and fails. He's like,

6:28 I'm not giving any media interviews. And when

6:33 Bryson came in second at the last major PGA, Bryson stayed and he congratulated Shoffley. So he's showing that he is an adult, and he's great with people. He's great with the fans understands who

6:47 pays the bills, if you will.

6:50 So it's interesting to see that this Liv is starting to build this relationship with fan base. And I was at Liv actually when it was increasing. Well, I was gonna ask you, what was the experience?

6:58 'Cause didn't you go Liv Houston? I did, and I talked to dozens and dozens of people and almost 100, not 100 but close. Never been to a professional golf tournament before and they loved it and

7:11 they were younger. So this is attracting an entirely new crowd of people. Totally different demographics. So you're not even competing necessarily with the PGA crowd At all, it was a great on-site

7:19 experience. They wear shorts, they play a 54 hole format. It's an entertainment. It's entertainment. There's no cut. There's no cut. I

7:28 saw Macklemore, great show by the way. I'm gonna pop some tags. And what was cool is everyone was looking up on Friday when they kicked off and I didn't understand what was happening. Parachooters

7:38 came in, like five guys with American flags floating on their backs and they landed on the first hole. It was cool. So interesting. So, so catch us up formula one. Yeah. So, uh, let's move

7:52 over to another sport form of the one century. Formula one has just made an announcement that they're going basically to be

8:02 100 sustainable fuel in their race cars by 2026. Currently they're using E 10 fuel, which is a blend of about 90 traditional 10

8:11 ethanol, renewable ethanol So interesting. That's their announcement. This is some ministering little side stores, but their chief technical officer Pat Simons is leading the development of

8:25 sustainable fuel and spent months researching, collaborating with FIA and fuel partner, Aramco. I mean, you see Aramco popping up here. Aramco is going to be the exclusive provider of this

8:37 sustainable fuel and it's currently 100 lab made. And if I understand it correctly. It's a hydrogen carbon-based, they call it hydrogen carbon fuel from what I read. That's correct. So the

8:54 hydrogen side, what they talked about in the article I read last week was

9:01 produced through electrolysis, essentially electrolyzing water. Right. We know most of the scale industrial grade hydrogen is produced reforming methane with steam and thermal energy and thermal

9:17 energy. And so this is a move to, I think, allow F1 to say at the track, we're fossil fuel free, the way I understand it. Yeah. Their comment, their wording is very specific. E fuel will have

9:34 a completely neutral carbon circle. The carbon used to produce the fuel will be equal to the carbon emitted, meaning the engines will not add any extra CO2 to the atmosphere. things like corn-based

9:47 ethanol. Right. On a unit per unit basis, corn-based ethanol, I think emits more than gasoline. From my research, this is actually correct. And I did see some things about using sugar cane

10:02 waste, would obviously make it more sustainable and not take what would otherwise be food like corn out of the food chain. And so it'll be interesting to see, I guess the carbon and emissions

10:15 accounting around the full cycle of either grain-based fuels or this hydrogen-carbon fuel. I may have the unpopular take here, but I'm actually all for this because I've thought a lot about this. I

10:32 was interesting this week's Chuck Yeatsie's job. I've got Chris Martz coming on, who's the senior in college, who's just been blowing up on Twitter, talking all about climate change, change and

10:45 the actual fundamental science behind it. I think at the end of the day, if we're actually gonna do something about carbon, the only way we do something about carbon is if we're all rich and living

10:58 a good life. And so nothing says rich dude more than Formula One. And if Formula One's gonna go solve this problem voluntarily with rich guy stuff, I'm kind of like all for it. 'Cause if they

11:15 throw a bunch of money at it and we create gasoline that just doesn't pollute as much, I think this is a good thing. Totally agree. So I'm down with this. I don't think you're unpopular opinion,

11:25 I think we all sort of agree. What we're trying to figure out is, is this really a net benefit or not? Right. That's what we're trying to figure out. Now production will be managed by Ramco with

11:35 facilities in Saudi Arabia and Spain. And in the press release, they keep going after the bigger narrative. to be applicable to nearly 2 billion internal combustion engines globally, many of which

11:49 are unlikely to switch to electric in the near future. So the question here is, is it actually a net benefit? That's just all we're asking. If it's a net benefit, who's against it? Except those

12:02 that are financially motivated. Well, what's crazy about it is our IRA

12:09 does not address us. I don't believe in any way We basically said, hey, we're going all in on

12:17 electric vehicles, and if we can make gas. Right, I mean, the problem with hydrogen fuel is, you know, for mass consumption is the cost and the price point. But, you know, if - In the Hidden

12:30 in Berg, but - Well, aggressive investment is led by

12:38 an interested body like Formula One Great, let's see how the technology progresses If it's, you know, if it's, it's, if it reaches the point of indifference and it's a better, less polluting

12:51 option, right. I got, I'll give Sankey credit for this because he's the one that told us to me, you know, early days of organic groceries, he just told his wife, just go buy organics, even if

13:06 it costs more. Right. But that way we'll just make it the standard and it'll make it cheaper for everybody else And hopefully we kind of get there. And so I'm sort of the same way. We pay more for

13:18 gasoline in the short term, but it gets us to a point of, you know, of all down with it. All right. Mark, take us to the IEA. Well, the IEA was out last week with a report and not surprisingly,

13:36 the executive director, Fatih Beryl's comments kind of

13:40 painting the looming threat of. OPEC and OPEC plus facing an unprecedented, as they call it, 8 million barrel a day supply gut. This dovetails with their forecasts that we're gonna see. Plateau

13:56 and decline of fossil fuel consumption globally, coal, oil, and natural gas at various points in time over the next five years, five, six years.

14:07 I'll first challenge the unprecedented glut of 8 million barrels a day on a 104 million barrel a day market. In 1986,

14:19 the market, global market, was around 66 million barrels a day. OPEC had 14 million barrels a day of spare capacity. So

14:28 it's been worse. And the

14:35 factors that lead to the IEA's conclusions here about this, the threat of this glut is I'm.

14:45 slowing growth for petroleum products, particularly crude oil and crude oil related products in China as they do things like transition to battery electric vehicles. The fact that both parties OPEC

14:60 plus and more importantly, non-OPEC, namely the US, are continuing to invest for growth in production. And so it's a dress, but not really mentioned on the demand side, but they see growth in

15:19 China going from kind of run rate 6 per year to four, which is a pretty big step down. But if you look at what's going on in

15:27 India, that might be deserving of a little bit more analysis and attention. What I would also say, and I heard about this last week or over the weekend, the average age of ICE vehicles

15:44 in the US is higher than it's ever been. It's 12 going to maybe 13 years or 12 and a half years. And the notion that the eventual swap out of combustion vehicles to electric vehicles really cuts

16:02 that particular vehicle's demand out of the picture, it actually doesn't. There's a huge export market for US discarded vehicles. US discarded vehicles that extends their life just in other places.

16:17 So a lot of those vehicles find their way into international markets where they continue to burn gasoline. Because cars run forever today. I mean, what's one of the most frequently seen things on

16:29 I-10 in tow? Yeah, right, yep. So Art Berman took the opportunity and very explicitly called the IAA Senate. quote unquote, I'm calling them out on this, this report that this, this glut is a

16:49 looming threat. And so, you know, kind of throwing down the gauntlet again. And it's, it's really a continuation of what's been going on politically between the IAA, OPEC and the EIA and, and

17:04 the global producers group in terms of, you know, where, where does all this go in terms of transition. So

17:16 it's, it's just more reinforcement to their case that we're going to see the, the peaking of demand sometime this decade, which I think they're the only ones that actually believe that it's part of

17:27 their advocacy role that they've increasingly been playing over the last several years. And, you know, he did art did call into question, which we've talked about before as well. You know, they

17:39 were, they were set up and IEA was set up in response to the

17:45 the embargo of the '70s, the energy crisis, one of their charters was to provide transparent, objective, and reliable data. And I think, you know, those of us who look at the data and the tilt

18:01 that they've made toward energy transition and renewables, advocacy, you know, leads to natural doubt

18:08 about the reliability of the data itself. So I don't see it, I don't see it slowing down. I mean,

18:18 a moment of

18:22 unanimity. I'd like to hear from Jekyll in this. So the bigger point of whether EVs are going to continue to grow in market share? Well, just kind of timing of all this. And as we kind of

18:35 pre-allocate energy demand to different sources,

18:42 you know, what comes out of a refinery is multiple products, diesel, gasoline, and all the other products that you crack and process out of a barrel of crude oil. And another good, I think,

18:54 insight that Art had in his discussion was, look, refineries aren't just, there's not an oligarch menu. You crack a barrel of crude, you get these products in different types of yields. And so

19:09 it's not that, one, it's not that simple, and two, you can adjust the slate of what you produce relative to

19:19 kind of the demand for each individual product stream. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, the refineries will be able to, yeah, be flexible as things change, if they change. I think that I'm very

19:29 skeptical of any numbers projecting massive EV adoption that would somehow then mean that ICE cars are just gonna be absolutely nonexistent, particularly here in the US.

19:41 follow the market and I see kind of what's happening. I see what the manufacturers are talking about. Here in the US, if you look like Teslas have absolutely cratered in value. Nobody's buying

19:53 these EVs. Everybody's increasing the incentives. Porsche just, with a new Taycan, just gave out a new incentive for owners to come in and buy via first time purchaser. I'm very skeptical about

20:04 all the numbers. Ford can't sell lightnings to the point to where it's put them in kind of a bind We've got this75, 000, 80, 000 truck that nobody wants. So I don't think that the EV market is

20:17 gonna have this massive, massive impact that's gonna detract from any of the oil consumption. Do you think it's an infrastructure issue or a combination of infrastructure and - Range anxiety. Range

20:31 anxiety and just technical. I mean, I said there's infrastructure, there's not enough chargers out there if I wanna go somewhere. The technology's not there yet and it's damn expensive. Yeah. I

20:42 guess it's the damn expensive, because if you see - And there's also a wheel, because I drove a Tesla X for six years, but I also - I wish the truck, the Tesla, what's the truck, cyber truck.

20:53 Yeah, yeah. That's what you should have drove, because it's a combination between your Hummer and a Tesla, that's how would I see Chuck rolling in? So, when we have our big monetization at

21:06 Digital Wildcatters, I'm not gonna tell anyone that there will be signs So, I'll die the facial hair, yellow and black, face tattoo and the monster truck. And a huge gold, like huge gold chain

21:21 with like a emblem. Yeah, exactly. Big emblem, big gold medallion. But there's a real thing. So, I wound up selling my Tesla, call it three years ago, 'cause I didn't know how long those

21:35 batteries were gonna last. If - Yeah. me told have would you

21:38 25 years from now, it'd still hold 100 mile charge. I probably would have kept that car forever 'cause I actually really liked the car. It'd be cool to 20 years from now, take the grandchildren

21:51 around, all that, but I didn't know. I mean, you could walk out one day and they don't work anymore. And all of a sudden you owe25, 000 to

22:01 keep your car running. So that was a real thing too. I mean, you look at the average price of most like pure EVs, not hybrids And they're just outside of the price range for the average Joe. So

22:12 they are getting cheaper. But they're also, in my opinion, most of these are big pieces of shit. Like I think Tesla's a piece of shit. Like you ever ride in a Tesla or you just look at the build

22:21 quality, there's all sorts of mismatched panels and it just rides like ass. So if I'm gonna spend50, 000 on a car, there's about 20 other cars I'd rather buy50, 000. The Porsche was a great EV

22:33 man. It's also a Porsche though. I know.

22:38 I'm glad I got rid of it though. But you look at what some of the Japanese manufacturers have been saying, for one, they knew that pure play EVs were never the move to begin with. Well,

22:48 specifically Toyota was far and away later. I think gotten everything right of that sobriety. Of that sobriety. They

22:57 just have gotten everything right. Now, you will see an increase in hybrids. I mean, you're seeing this naturally, you've even seen this happen with Ferrari and Lamborghini and all of that. Yeah,

23:04 they're all moving to the hybrid engine, which is smart. You can go down from a V8 to a four and have an electric, which is actually more efficient. But car enthusiasts, 'cause I have, my car is

23:17 an eight, cylinder. Because I realize it's the last year of the eight and it's gonna retain its value, I think. What do you think? You like that strategy? You know, I thought the same thing

23:29 about my STI because it was like the last, like they don't make them anymore, they're never gonna make them. It was the last year that they made them. It was a six speed STD, but yeah, I mean,

23:41 I, I can vouch as an owner, at least anecdotally that a V8 Raptor retains its value. It's just, it's just, yeah, I thought we just had Mark going. I can. Vouch is not his, his STI and I was

23:55 like, wow, that was a crazy, you know, I would never do that. That should ever He's never had one. What?

24:04 Oh, EV that is. Yeah. There we go. It's only one way to find out. That's right. But I think I think that's the one thing in all of this. We just talked about that gets lost on things as market

24:16 forces actually matter. Absolutely. We're not going to have a glut of oil because if people aren't using oil, nobody's going to pay for it. Nobody's going to drill for it. Nobody's going to store

24:26 it. We'll just shut it in And we'll have excess capacity, but we're not going to have, you know,

24:33 Nothing cures as low oil prices like low oil prices. Nothing cures high oil prices like high oil prices. I mean, market forces matter and it will adjust. I think these guys - Yeah, if you reset

24:44 the

24:46 arbitrage between

24:49 electric modes of transportation and gasoline powered and we're in this

24:56 glut that the IEA is talking about, gasoline is gonna be a pretty cheap option. Yeah Policy and regulation are certainly the ways around that, but as we've seen in recent election outcomes, those

25:09 things generally don't go smoothly and sometimes start to swing the pendulum the other way.

25:18 So we'll see. Yeah, 'cause that kind of rolls us into the next topic is, so I'll kind of preface it with this. Trinity gas, they're opening the first natural gas storage. facility in Texas in

25:34 the last 10 years. I think it opens in December. They had their user meeting to think pipeline companies, EP producers, all this, about 100 people were there. And I gave a speech to them. And

25:48 basically my speech was we're going to need so much more power and the existing providers of power, the utilities are not going to supply it. They just can't do it. They're not entrepreneurial

26:00 enough These grids are big, moving pieces. I mean, we talk about it every week on BDE. Dominion's already said no more data centers in Virginia. We can't supply this. And so I made the point

26:13 that tech, big tech, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, they're going to be the folks that are going to be buying the power, this incremental amount of power we're going to need for AI data centers all

26:27 this and they're gonna buy nukes. That's what all of them are talking about. And so there was an article out this week that Bill Gates was talking, gave an interview, talking about how he loves

26:40 nukes. I forget what is, what's his - Terra power. Terra power, he's invested a billion dollars. He's willing to invest billions more. They're opening up their first plant in Wyoming. And my

26:53 point to all the natural gas guys was you gotta stop thinking about selling natural gas. You need to think about selling electrons Whether that's something as simple as your just Bitcoin mining out

27:04 in the field, whether you're natural gas generation and you're popping it onto the grid, et cetera. But you really need to start thinking that you're selling electrons and you're selling straight

27:19 to big tech because they're all gonna choose nukes. And the last thing I'll say about this when I'll open it up is everyone in the audience like oh nukes are so hard, you know, regulation and all

27:31 this. for energy people, not for Bill Gates. Bill Gates can walk into Congress and get whatever the hell he wants. Yeah, politically from, you know, we talked about the NRC and just all the

27:42 inertia there and the complexity and most importantly, the costs that it imposes on innovators in the nuclear space, you're exactly right. And I've seen opinion pieces that said, ultimately what's

27:56 going to

27:59 break this log jam of crushing regulatory and political minefields that have to be navigated with, in many cases companies, just that don't have the financial staying power to get through all of it.

28:15 There's no affinity among the traditional proponents or what we would think of that should lead this like traditional power companies, et cetera, certainly not oil and gas companies, but

28:26 politically the way to get this done, and financially from an advocacy standpoint, and policy change standpoint is likely going to have to come out a big tech, because there is, as we've witnessed

28:41 with the rise of big tech, that there is significant political affinity with the way and the political direction of this country. And I think that ultimately will get the necessary policy and

28:53 regulatory change. So two weeks ago, ahead of AI friend telling the podcast, we were talking about supplying power. He was like, Yeah, nukes. We're just gonna build nuke plants right next.

29:06 When Jewel, my dear friend Jewel, bumped into Mark Andreessen at a party. It was, Hey, Jewel texted me. What do you want me to ask Mark Andreessen? Come on my show. I said besides, you know,

29:20 go on a date with me 'cause I have a man crush on Mark Andreessen. Please respond to a DM. Please respond to my DMs. But no, I said, how are we going to power all this? And Jason's like, oh

29:32 yeah, nukes. It's such a no brainer. And so the natural gas folks have got to step up, make entrees into big tech, start talking about co-locating stuff, building natural gas. You're a crack

29:46 dealer. Give away the crack, get big tech hooked on it now. Or else we really are. 10 years from now, we're going to be sitting around with a bunch of new stuff being built, and natural gas can

29:59 still be at a bock. I think John Arnold is one of the investors in Terra Nova. He's doing some things with Gates. I just can't recall if - or excuse me, Terra Power. But to the extent that you've

30:13 got someone who brings perspective from both sides involved in the advocacy, that's a good thing. I don't think these two are mutually exclusive I feel like you're gonna see them in tandem. The

30:28 difference between powering AI at data centers versus Bitcoin miners is Bitcoin miners need absolutely the cheapest cost of power, whereas AI data centers need the quickest power, right? So they

30:42 don't necessarily care as much about the price of the power. And so yes, we're gonna see a lot more news come online. I think it is gonna be a Trojan horse like you were talking about Mark to

30:51 making more of these, yeah, more of these built, but also being able to power a ton of this on natural gas, you're gonna see a shitload of off grid, high performance compute in the idea centers.

30:52 So long as we get out there and actually ask, and I don't feel like we as natural gas guys are doing that, being entrepreneurial enough about it, but maybe it's 'cause I'm sitting here

30:55 always soapbox.

30:58 It's not rocket science, you have a better market for your gas. So stop selling gas and start selling power You know what's interesting if you actually.

31:26 I for Kate AI, they're kind of two buckets. One is what I'll call the query bucket. And that's the 247. You're part of the NICU unit at a hospital. Queries are going out about how kids are doing

31:43 all that. That stuff has to be up 247, right? You've got to have 9999 reliable power. Actually, what's interesting is training your language models You don't have to have 247 power. You can get

31:58 away with 98 reliable stuff. And so you can bifurcate those within an AI company. So like natural gas generation in the middle of

32:10 nowhere that may, for whatever reason, glitch here and there. That's actually OK for training and data center. And natural gas folks need to be thinking about that is, Hey, you know, Monahan's

32:24 Texas, it'd be great for a data center. training AI stuff. We'll back up on the grid, but if we have a glitch down, it's not it's not going to be the end of the world. Yeah, it all said. Yeah.

32:39 All right, real quick, Mexican elections. And so as we've been doing every week on the podcast, we break down the year of democracy 2024 It's going to be more than a billion people that vote this

32:53 year. I think 76 countries are having elections. So we've been going through each one of them. So when we look at and we kind of lost over Mexico, because we went and we talked to India last week,

33:06 June 2nd was the Mexican elections, and it was literally everything. President, the way the president works in Mexico, one six-year term, and that's it. They also had both of their houses of

33:21 their Congress, so they had the Chamber of Deputies, which is kind of 500 members, their version of the house, 128 members, the Senate of the Republic, obviously their version of the Senate.

33:33 And then they had all the state elections as well. So it's kind of wild. Claudia Shinebaum won.

33:43 So first female to be President of Mexico, as well as her main competitor female So, and she won was 61 of the vote. And then also the first Jewish president of Mexico from a very highly Roman

34:04 Catholic

34:06 culture, which was interesting. And one other thing I'll say before we jump into energy policy on this is it was actually a lot in the way of deaths People running for office, they got killed by.

34:23 supposedly disputes with labor unions, cartels, et cetera. So maybe more violent an election than obviously you'd like to see. But, you know, Claudia is from the reigning party, but this is a

34:38 continuation. But I think there'll be some changes in energy policy. One of the things that I read that she favors is reducing exports of crude oil and keeping those for domestic use. Do they have

34:55 enough refining capacity? They, I think Lopez, Oberdor just was at the commissioning or ribbon cutting on, on a new refinery. I don't know what their capacity balance is relative to domestic

35:12 demand. So good question. You know, we, we've historically run not a trivial amount of my and crude and refineries on the Gulf Coast,

35:23 or high complexity and design to maximize value out of those barrels, those more problematic barrels. And so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. She wants to transition more and more

35:38 power generation from

35:43 thermal sources into solar and wind She's pretty far left as that party is, but she also has a background in, I believe, our guest producer was telling us in our pre-show prep that she actually has

36:02 a degree in some type of admissions science Okay, some type, we just don't know what it is. She does recognize natural gas, which at least in the ground, Mexico potentially has a significant

36:20 endowment as a needed transition fuel. As you know, we send quite a bit via pipeline and under NAFTA to Mexico every day. So

36:34 six years, when you've got

36:39 the systemic problems that Mexico is dealing with, fundamentally, like human safety and security and violence, that that's a very, very short period of time. So we'll see. The other thing about

36:57 more natural gas development, Chuck and I were talking about it in

37:02 earlier today. And

37:05 Mexico's reserves, oil and gas reserves, are constitutionally the sovereign property of Mexico and its citizens, which is why you've not seen just given the geologic potential of Mexico, both oil

37:21 and gas. You've not seen really the typical model that, from a risk standpoint, that incentivizes big foreign capital investment, not being able to either synthetically or actually participate in

37:37 ownership and development, and ultimately the returns on those assets. It's more of a, historically, has been more of a cost plus or guaranteed rate return type of arrangement The

37:50 expropriation day is still a big day

37:53 in Mexico, so yeah. So

37:58 it'll be interesting to watch. I mean, some stuff I read about is just potentially they invest more in lower carbon type stuff, more renewables. On the refining issue, I just real quick, you

38:12 know, googled it to take this for what it's worth is nameplate capacity They have access for finding

38:21 capability. the way they run them though, they run less than 50 of the time versus call it 90 in states. And so

38:32 it's, if you got them humming, yes, they have excess capacity. I mean, that's similar to, you know, it's like similar to, um, uh, what's that country down, um, that's being disputed

38:45 Venezuela. I mean, say, don't anything just seems to just not operate the same now. Aramco is a different story. They know how they run their business. But, um, a lot of these smaller

38:57 countries are just, they don't put the people in place. Well, and I've dealt directly and had partners in national oil companies. And there is certainly much more of an inefficiency in their cost

39:11 structure related to just the employment numbers Yeah, and they are multiples of what an efficient like us major. I think Exxon's down to

39:24 60, 000 may be less than that. And so, you know, having reductions in force and redundancies eliminated from a

39:37 GNA standpoint is really, really difficult.

39:42 And so we've been through in the US, both in the - Name a government that's ever gotten smaller. Right. Argentina. There you go. There we go, we've got a - The third Reich.

39:56 Oh shit. Wow, courtesy of the US. Marine Corps.

40:02 Yeah. The US. Army, but anyway. So, yeah, Mexico, I think the punch line there is just more of a turn to the left, even though it's the - Which is interesting, 'cause Europe's going the other

40:18 direction, right? Yeah, so Well, Mexico may just. earlier in the phase, we'll see if

40:27 price controls are lifted on certain key items, then energy chief among them, what

40:37 type of populous threat will materialize, and does it happen within our term if we have a Europe-like situation evolve in Mexico in terms of inflationary pressures on the citizenry, but I think more

40:52 fundamentally the problems with safety and security continue to always be lurking to upset the most noble policy designs. Money matters. Jake, real quick, how is Energy Tech Night in Oklahoma City?

41:13 Oklahoma City always shows up. I mean, the crowd is awesome. There's just tons of people. We all went upstairs and did karaoke afterwards. Yes. And what's your, what's your song? I, I didn't

41:26 have a song. Sydney did seeing the Dixie chick song about, um, killing Earl, uh, what's that song called? I won't get it Earl or it's just called Earl. Okay. Yeah. She nailed it by the way.

41:37 Uh, but this was the, the most remarkable performances in a karaoke bar I've ever heard in my life. These people were. It says the guy who, who's eight drinks and speaking of jule, speaking of

41:49 karaoke Have you seen the video where she goes on the skies to the karaoke bar and sing her songs? And I did. Yeah. It was. Yeah. No, it was worth watching. So if we can find that, maybe

42:03 attach

42:07 it. There we go. Perfect. All right, guys. Well, this was fun. Thanks for sitting in for Colin. Yeah. We, uh, you were able to lower the seat. So should we, should we shout out to our

42:16 intern that did the work on the Mexico elections? Ah, yes. So Kelly Yates. Uh, my youngest daughter came into the office today and helped brief us on Mexico. So that was fun. That was cool.

42:29 She, she's actually got a YouTube channel where she makes Roblox videos where she give us like hacks. She routinely, uh, out downloads, uh, BDE. So.

42:44 I have one more thing. This is marks. I thought saying no STIs are real Secondly, we're going to out download your 47 year US ticketed concert. A crowd record was broken this weekend by none other

43:02 than King George straight at Kyle Field, first concert at Kyle Field 110, 905. Okay. My son went, I not only did, did Kyle Field break that record. They broke another record just a week prior.

43:16 Do you know what that was? Now Brazil, Mexico match.

43:23 I saw one somewhat derisive tweet about it's

43:29 first time something ever at Kyle Field where it was guaranteed that the home team was going to win.

43:36 That's pretty funny. I

43:38 will say this, George Strait is amazing. If you've never seen George Strait, you need

43:51 to see Willie Nelson. You need to see George Strait. You need to see Robert or all Keene, all these guys who have retired I've seen Willie Nelson, what's striking about George Strait? I mean, 72

43:55 years old now. He's been on top for.

44:01 40 years? 44 years. Unwound came out in 1980. Most people think that was his first number one. It wasn't. Trivia, anybody know what his first number one. Full-hearted memory. Was it real?

44:13 Yeah, written by the great Byron Hill. So I saw the ticket prices for this thing, and I was like, yeah, I would love to go It. was just kind of expensive 110, 000 people. How much money do you

44:21 think you made on this one concert? And I was trying to play with that. I can probably find out. It's a lot. I know a guy that got a quote from George 15 years ago for his birthday. You know, to

44:32 have George play and it was a million bucks. So here's the deal. Headliner typically takes, and I know because a good friend of mine's a longtime promoter and they're at the bottom of the, well at

44:41 the top of the wrist chain, bottom of the reward chain. And typically what you see is the headliners are gonna get north of 50 of the gate. Gross. Wow It's a lot, 110, 000 people. I don't know

44:55 what face was on those tickets. They had a big presale, the 12th man foundation in club. I was seeing like minimum500 at ticket. I looked, this was months ago when this thing was announced that

45:07 they opened up the presale. And where I like to sit was, you know, 1500 to 2000 per. I've seen Willie at the broken spoke, small, tiny venue I've seen Stevie Ray Vaughan at Antones. small venue.

45:24 George Strait. Has anyone seen George Strait in a small venue? Cause I liked that would be interesting. The four thing County Fair back in the mid eighties, uh, George played it. And I went and

45:35 saw it back. You were like two years old. I gotta remember that. Last time I saw George Strait was it is a sensible, well, and I guess technically for George Strait tours was back in 2014 when he

45:51 closed out cowboy rides away tour at ATT Stadium, which broke the rolling stones. I mean, that's not a small thing for indoor. Oh, there we go. So because we went to go meet Modesto, which were

46:07 in her office and they had pictures of George Strait playing at their ranch. Yeah, playing in effect, Clayton Williams backyard. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So since we're on the topic, I'll do this

46:18 this really quick, but where does George Strait rise to? prominent Houston livestock show because Eddie Rabbit was sick and they called him, but but this is so so the the livestock show and rodeo

46:34 board is meeting that morning. What are we going to do? I love a rainy night. Eddie Rabbit sick. What are we going to do? One of the guys pops up and says, Hey, there's this guy George Strait.

46:44 I saw on a bar in San Marcos. He's kind of got that song out right now called unwound, but like I saw him like a year ago. There were 15 people in the bar, but the dude put on the show like there

46:59 were a million of us there. It was one of the best things I've ever seen and wound up sending his private jet to San Antonio. They tracked George down because this is pre cell phones. He was out

47:11 looking for his dog, but anyway, they talked to George and they're like, Hey, we want you to play the rodeo. He says, Oh, that's great. Next year, I'm going to tour. And he said, no, we

47:20 want you to play tonight. right now, send the jet over comes back. He no sound check. He's walked straight in, walked straight. No, he actually rode in on a horse. I do. He was the, he was

47:34 the first one to ever pull that device at the, at the Houston lifestyle show in rodeo, got up on stage and was George fucking straight. And he's been the biggest deal on the planet ever since the

47:47 lesson in that, because I tell my kids that story all the time is, if you're doing something, if you're doing something for 14 people in a bar, put your heart in it, because you don't know who

47:57 one of those 14 people will be. And the guy who had the best job in the world, and actually got George straight to the next level, herbals, he recently passed away as a long time manager. And

48:11 then he lost his the day after this was recent, lost his legendary, federal player, Gene elders, in the ace and the whole band. So they've been through a lot here in the last few months and, you

48:24 know, still going strong, but I made the mistake one time. I met Irv and Austin. We were there for

48:32 some other things, music related, but

48:35 Irv was there because George, it was around the time of the big bastard fires. Yeah, I think it

48:43 was 2011. And I was supposed to go see Peter Frampton was at they see alive at Moody theater. Right. And he didn't know who that is. His set was the entire album Frampton becomes alive. And I'm

48:55 right. I'm Peter Frampton.

48:58 Well, I get sidetracked into going out with my buddies and Irv was among them, and I got introduced to Irv. And I made the

49:12 grave mistake of trying to match Irv drink for drink that evening Let's end on a sports note 'cause I'm just gonna read this out. crazy stat of the day. Since joining live and being banned by the

49:24 PGA tour, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Kepka have more PGA tour sanctioned wins than Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Ricky Fowler combined,

49:36 but not, but not Scotty. Oh, well, skies, Scottie. All right, boys, great show, man.

49:42 Thank you guys. Good seeing everybody.

Formula 1, IEA report, the Ugly Truth about EVs, Mexico elections | BDE 06.17.24